Arbor Realty Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

ABR
 Stock
  

USD 14.77  0.04  0.27%   

Arbor Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Arbor Realty historical stock prices and determine the direction of Arbor Realty Trust's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Arbor Realty historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Arbor Realty naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Arbor Realty Trust systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arbor Realty fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arbor Realty to cross-verify your projections.
  
As of 12/02/2022, Asset Turnover is likely to grow to 0.07, while Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 2.04. . As of 12/02/2022, Weighted Average Shares is likely to grow to about 148.7 M. Also, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 168.4 M.

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 Arbor Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arbor Realty's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Arbor Realty's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Arbor Realty stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arbor Realty's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arbor Realty's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arbor Realty is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arbor. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Arbor Realty cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Arbor Realty's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Arbor Realty's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Arbor Realty is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Arbor Realty Trust value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Arbor Realty Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Arbor Realty Trust on the next trading day is expected to be 15.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.42.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arbor Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arbor Realty's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arbor Realty Stock Forecast Pattern

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Arbor Realty Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arbor Realty's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arbor Realty's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.35 and 18.08, respectively. We have considered Arbor Realty's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14.77
15.22
Expected Value
18.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arbor Realty stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arbor Realty stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.9589
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2692
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0209
SAESum of the absolute errors16.419
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Arbor Realty Trust. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Arbor Realty. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Arbor Realty

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arbor Realty Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Arbor Realty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Arbor Realty in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11.8414.7117.58
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.2917.9820.85
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
20.0022.3324.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.771.771.77
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Arbor Realty. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Arbor Realty's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Arbor Realty's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Arbor Realty Trust.

Other Forecasting Options for Arbor Realty

For every potential investor in Arbor, whether a beginner or expert, Arbor Realty's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arbor Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arbor. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arbor Realty's price trends.

Arbor Realty Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arbor Realty stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arbor Realty could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arbor Realty by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
VANGUARD SMALL-CAP GROWTHGROWTH FUNDLinde PLCAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arbor Realty Trust Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Arbor Realty's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Arbor Realty's current price.

Arbor Realty Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arbor Realty stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arbor Realty shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arbor Realty stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arbor Realty Trust entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arbor Realty Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arbor Realty's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arbor Realty's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Arbor Realty stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Arbor Realty without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Arbor Realty

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Arbor Realty position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Arbor Realty will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Arbor Realty

+0.77BAMBrookfield Asset Man Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.83BGCPBGC Partners Aggressive PushPairCorr
+0.88BLKBlackRock Fiscal Year End 13th of January 2023 PairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Arbor Realty could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Arbor Realty when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Arbor Realty - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Arbor Realty Trust to buy it.
The correlation of Arbor Realty is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Arbor Realty moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Arbor Realty Trust moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Arbor Realty can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arbor Realty to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Arbor Realty Trust information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Arbor Realty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try CEO Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.

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When running Arbor Realty Trust price analysis, check to measure Arbor Realty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Arbor Realty is operating at the current time. Most of Arbor Realty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Arbor Realty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Arbor Realty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Arbor Realty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Arbor Realty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arbor Realty. If investors know Arbor will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Arbor Realty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.28) 
Market Capitalization
2.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.05) 
Return On Assets
0.025
Return On Equity
0.15
The market value of Arbor Realty Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Arbor that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Arbor Realty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Arbor Realty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Arbor Realty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Arbor Realty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Arbor Realty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Arbor Realty value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Arbor Realty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.