ARCA Biopharma Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

ABIO
 Stock
  

USD 2.11  0.00  0.00%   

ARCA Biopharma Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast ARCA Biopharma historical stock prices and determine the direction of ARCA Biopharma's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of ARCA Biopharma historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARCA Biopharma to cross-verify your projections.
  

Open Interest Agains t 2022-12-16 ARCA Biopharma Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ARCA Biopharma's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest ARCA Biopharma's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies ARCA Biopharma stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ARCA Biopharma's open interest, investors have to compare it to ARCA Biopharma's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ARCA Biopharma is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ARCA Biopharma. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in ARCA Biopharma cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the ARCA Biopharma's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets ARCA Biopharma's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
ARCA Biopharma polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for ARCA Biopharma as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

ARCA Biopharma Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 6th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of ARCA Biopharma on the next trading day is expected to be 2.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.042072, mean absolute percentage error of 0.003079, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.57.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ARCA Biopharma Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ARCA Biopharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

ARCA Biopharma Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest ARCA BiopharmaARCA Biopharma Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

ARCA Biopharma Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting ARCA Biopharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ARCA Biopharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0211 and 4.31, respectively. We have considered ARCA Biopharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 2.11
0.0211
Downside
2.07
Expected Value
4.31
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ARCA Biopharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ARCA Biopharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.3273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0421
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.02
SAESum of the absolute errors2.5664
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the ARCA Biopharma historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for ARCA Biopharma

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ARCA Biopharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ARCA Biopharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ARCA Biopharma in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
0.262.504.74
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1.905.737.97
Details
1 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
16.5016.5016.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ARCA Biopharma. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ARCA Biopharma's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ARCA Biopharma's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ARCA Biopharma.

Other Forecasting Options for ARCA Biopharma

For every potential investor in ARCA Biopharma, whether a beginner or expert, ARCA Biopharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ARCA Biopharma Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ARCA Biopharma. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ARCA Biopharma's price trends.

ARCA Biopharma Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ARCA Biopharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ARCA Biopharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARCA Biopharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Aurora CannabisAgilent TechnologiesAcer TherapeuticsAMN Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGlobal X NASDAQFRANKLIN MUTUAL EUROPEANBHP Group LimitedNatural Health TrendIShares MSCI USABetaPro Canadian GoldAramark HoldingsVanguard Long-TermSeagate Technology PLC
 Risk & Return  Correlation

ARCA Biopharma Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of ARCA Biopharma's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of ARCA Biopharma's current price.

ARCA Biopharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of ARCA Biopharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ARCA Biopharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting ARCA Biopharma stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ARCA Biopharma in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ARCA Biopharma's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ARCA Biopharma options trading.

Pair Trading with ARCA Biopharma

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARCA Biopharma position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARCA Biopharma will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with ARCA Biopharma

+0.69ARWRArrowhead Pharmaceuticals Upward RallyPairCorr
+0.77BEAMBeam TherapeuticsInc Normal TradingPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARCA Biopharma could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARCA Biopharma when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARCA Biopharma - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARCA Biopharma to buy it.
The correlation of ARCA Biopharma is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARCA Biopharma moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARCA Biopharma moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARCA Biopharma can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of ARCA Biopharma to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running ARCA Biopharma price analysis, check to measure ARCA Biopharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARCA Biopharma is operating at the current time. Most of ARCA Biopharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARCA Biopharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARCA Biopharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARCA Biopharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ARCA Biopharma's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARCA Biopharma. If investors know ARCA Biopharma will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ARCA Biopharma listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
30.3 M
Return On Assets
(0.17) 
Return On Equity
(0.29) 
The market value of ARCA Biopharma is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARCA Biopharma that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARCA Biopharma's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARCA Biopharma's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARCA Biopharma's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARCA Biopharma's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARCA Biopharma's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ARCA Biopharma value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARCA Biopharma's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.