AAVE Crypto Coin Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAVE
 Crypto
  

USD 110.54  4.28  3.73%   

AAVE Crypto Coin Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast AAVE historical stock prices and determine the direction of AAVE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of AAVE historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAVE to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in AAVE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the AAVE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets AAVE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for AAVE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of AAVE value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

AAVE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 16th of August 2022

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of AAVE on the next trading day is expected to be 125.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.60, mean absolute percentage error of 47.42, and the sum of the absolute errors of 341.48.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AAVE Crypto Coin prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AAVE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

AAVE Crypto Coin Forecast Pattern

AAVE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting AAVE's Crypto Coin value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. AAVE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 115.82 and 134.52, respectively. We have considered AAVE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 110.54
115.82
Downside
125.17
Expected Value
134.52
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AAVE crypto coin data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AAVE crypto coin, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.9695
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.5981
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0704
SAESum of the absolute errors341.4817
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of AAVE. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AAVE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for AAVE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AAVE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AAVE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AAVE in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
93.07102.42111.77
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
69.8979.24121.59
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
81.73103.54125.35
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AAVE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AAVE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AAVE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AAVE.

Other Forecasting Options for AAVE

For every potential investor in AAVE, whether a beginner or expert, AAVE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. AAVE Crypto Coin price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in AAVE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying AAVE's price trends.

AAVE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with AAVE crypto coin to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of AAVE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing AAVE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
XRPSolanaAvalanchePolkadotPolygonFTX TokenUniswap Protocol TokenChainlinkTRONDaiApeCoinAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPER
 Risk & Return  Correlation

AAVE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of AAVE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of AAVE's current price.

AAVE Risk Indicators

The analysis of AAVE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in AAVE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting AAVE stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AAVE without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with AAVE

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AAVE position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AAVE will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AAVE

0.76XRPXRPPairCorr
0.63SOLSolanaPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AAVE could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AAVE when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AAVE - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AAVE to buy it.
The correlation of AAVE is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AAVE moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AAVE moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AAVE can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of AAVE to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AAVE information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AAVE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Other Tools for AAVE Crypto Coin

When running AAVE price analysis, check to measure AAVE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AAVE is operating at the current time. Most of AAVE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AAVE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AAVE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AAVE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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