Advance Auto Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAP
 Stock
  

USD 173.64  0.55  0.32%   

Advance Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Advance Auto historical stock prices and determine the direction of Advance Auto Parts's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Advance Auto historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Advance Auto naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Advance Auto Parts systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advance Auto fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advance Auto to cross-verify your projections.
  
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As of 1st of July 2022, PPandE Turnover is likely to grow to 7.39. Also, Receivables Turnover is likely to grow to 15.73. Advance Auto Weighted Average Shares is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 64.03 Million. As of 1st of July 2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 72.8 M, though Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to (482.6 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-15 Advance Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Advance Auto's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Advance Auto's options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Advance Auto stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Advance Auto's open interest, investors have to compare it to Advance Auto's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Advance Auto is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Advance. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Advance Auto cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Advance Auto's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Advance Auto's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Advance Auto is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Advance Auto Parts value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Advance Auto Parts Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Advance Auto's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Advance. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Advance can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Advance Auto Parts. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Advance Auto's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Advance Auto's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Advance Auto's news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Advance Auto.

Advance Auto Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 2nd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Advance Auto Parts on the next trading day is expected to be 182.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.10, mean absolute percentage error of 43.40, and the sum of the absolute errors of 310.89. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advance Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advance Auto's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Advance Auto Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Advance AutoAdvance Auto Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Advance Auto Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Advance Auto's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advance Auto's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 180.09 and 185.27, respectively. We have considered Advance Auto's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 173.64
180.09
Downside
182.68
Expected Value
185.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advance Auto stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advance Auto stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.8809
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation5.0965
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0263
SAESum of the absolute errors310.8862
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Advance Auto Parts. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Advance Auto. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Advance Auto

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advance Auto Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
165.61168.20190.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.19208.58211.17
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
160.32195.84231.37
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00255.77290.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.

Other Forecasting Options for Advance Auto

For every potential investor in Advance, whether a beginner or expert, Advance Auto's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advance Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advance. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advance Auto's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advance Auto stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advance Auto could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advance Auto by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Advance Auto Parts Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Advance Auto's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Advance Auto's current price.

Advance Auto Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advance Auto stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advance Auto shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advance Auto stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advance Auto Parts entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Advance Auto Risk Indicators

The analysis of Advance Auto's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advance Auto's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Advance Auto stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Advance Auto without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Advance Auto

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advance Auto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advance Auto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Advance Auto Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advance Auto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advance Auto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advance Auto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advance Auto Parts to buy it.
The correlation of Advance Auto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advance Auto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advance Auto Parts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advance Auto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advance Auto to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for Advance Stock analysis

When running Advance Auto Parts price analysis, check to measure Advance Auto's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Advance Auto is operating at the current time. Most of Advance Auto's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Advance Auto's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Advance Auto's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Advance Auto to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.2
Market Capitalization
10.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.013
Return On Assets
0.0434
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advance Auto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.