American Century Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

AAAIX
 Fund
  

USD 6.74  0.04  0.60%   

American Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Century historical stock prices and determine the direction of American Century Strategic's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of American Century historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Most investors in American Century cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the American Century's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets American Century's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for American Century is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of American Century Strategic value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

American Century Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of American Century Strategic on the next trading day is expected to be 6.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0148, and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.23. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Century's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

American Century Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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American Century Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting American Century's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Century's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.65 and 8.27, respectively. We have considered American Century's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 6.74
6.96
Expected Value
8.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Century mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Century mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.8974
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1021
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0145
SAESum of the absolute errors6.2266
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of American Century Strategic. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict American Century. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for American Century

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Century Str. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Century's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Century in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
5.436.748.05
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
5.526.838.14
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.696.746.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Century. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Century's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Century's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Century Str.

Other Forecasting Options for American Century

For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Century's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Century's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Century mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Century could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Century by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

American Century Str Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of American Century's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of American Century's current price.

American Century Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Century's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Century's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting American Century stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Century Investors Sentiment

The influence of American Century's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in American. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards American Century in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, American Century's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from American Century options trading.

Current Sentiment - AAAIX

American Century Str Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis users are presently bullish on American Century Strategic. What is your sentiment towards investing in American Century Strategic? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with American Century

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Century position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Century will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

American Century Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Century could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Century when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Century - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Century Strategic to buy it.
The correlation of American Century is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Century moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Century Str moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Century can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Century Str information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Century's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

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When running American Century Str price analysis, check to measure American Century's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Century is operating at the current time. Most of American Century's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Century's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Century's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Century to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Century's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Century value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Century's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.