Agilent Technologies Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

A
 Stock
  

USD 119.21  0.44  0.37%   

Agilent Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Agilent Technologies historical stock prices and determine the direction of Agilent Technologies's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Agilent Technologies historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although Agilent Technologies naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of Agilent Technologies systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Agilent Technologies fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilent Technologies to cross-verify your projections.
  
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Agilent Technologies Receivables Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Receivables Turnover was at 6.58. The current year Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to grow to 10.31, whereas PPandE Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.96. . Agilent Technologies Weighted Average Shares is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Weighted Average Shares was at 273.6 Million. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 284.9 M, whereas Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is forecasted to decline to (677.1 M).

Open Interest Agains t 2022-07-15 Agilent Option Contracts

Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Agilent Technologies' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest Agilent Technologies' options reflect these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short trading strategies Agilent Technologies stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note, to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Agilent Technologies' open interest, investors have to compare it to Agilent Technologies' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Agilent Technologies is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Agilent. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Most investors in Agilent Technologies cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Agilent Technologies' time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Agilent Technologies' price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Agilent Technologies is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Agilent Technologies value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Agilent Technologies Current Investor Sentiment

Investor biases related to Agilent Technologies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Agilent. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Agilent can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Agilent Technologies. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Agilent Technologies' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Agilent Technologies' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Agilent Technologies' news discussions. The higher the estimate score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Agilent Technologies.

Agilent Technologies Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 3rd of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Agilent Technologies on the next trading day is expected to be 125.85 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.68, mean absolute percentage error of 10.15, and the sum of the absolute errors of 163.24. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Agilent Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Agilent Technologies' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Agilent Technologies Stock Forecast Pattern

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Agilent Technologies Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Agilent Technologies' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Agilent Technologies' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 123.41 and 128.28, respectively. We have considered Agilent Technologies' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 119.21
123.41
Downside
125.85
Expected Value
128.28
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Agilent Technologies stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Agilent Technologies stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.4278
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.6761
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.022
SAESum of the absolute errors163.2434
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Agilent Technologies. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Agilent Technologies. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Agilent Technologies

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Agilent Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Agilent Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Agilent Technologies in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
116.97119.41121.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
107.29132.40134.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
110.22119.24128.26
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
144.00175.40195.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Agilent Technologies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Agilent Technologies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Agilent Technologies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Agilent Technologies.

Other Forecasting Options for Agilent Technologies

For every potential investor in Agilent, whether a beginner or expert, Agilent Technologies' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Agilent Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Agilent. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Agilent Technologies' price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Agilent Technologies stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Agilent Technologies could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Agilent Technologies by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Agilent Technologies Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Agilent Technologies' price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Agilent Technologies' current price.

Agilent Technologies Risk Indicators

The analysis of Agilent Technologies' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Agilent Technologies' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Agilent Technologies stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Agilent Technologies without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Agilent Technologies

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Agilent Technologies position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Agilent Technologies will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Agilent Technologies Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Agilent Technologies could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Agilent Technologies when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Agilent Technologies - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Agilent Technologies to buy it.
The correlation of Agilent Technologies is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Agilent Technologies moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Agilent Technologies moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Agilent Technologies can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of Agilent Technologies to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Agilent Technologies information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Agilent Technologies' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Agilent Technologies price analysis, check to measure Agilent Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Agilent Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Agilent Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Agilent Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Agilent Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Agilent Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Agilent Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Agilent Technologies. If investors know Agilent will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Agilent Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.3
Market Capitalization
35.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.054
Return On Assets
0.0908
Return On Equity
0.25
The market value of Agilent Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Agilent that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Agilent Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Agilent Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Agilent Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Agilent Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Agilent Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Agilent Technologies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Agilent Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.