FUJIAN AONONG Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing

603363
  

CNY 13.48  0.40  3.06%   

FUJIAN Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast FUJIAN AONONG historical stock prices and determine the direction of FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOGICAL's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of FUJIAN AONONG historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of FUJIAN AONONG to cross-verify your projections.
  
Most investors in FUJIAN AONONG cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the FUJIAN AONONG's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets FUJIAN AONONG's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Double exponential smoothing - also known as Holt exponential smoothing is a refinement of the popular simple exponential smoothing model with an additional trending component. Double exponential smoothing model for FUJIAN AONONG works best with periods where there are trends or seasonality.

FUJIAN AONONG Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOGICAL on the next trading day is expected to be 13.57 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.86.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FUJIAN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FUJIAN AONONG's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

FUJIAN AONONG Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest FUJIAN AONONGFUJIAN AONONG Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

FUJIAN AONONG Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting FUJIAN AONONG's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. FUJIAN AONONG's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.81 and 17.33, respectively. We have considered FUJIAN AONONG's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 13.48
13.57
Expected Value
17.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FUJIAN AONONG stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FUJIAN AONONG stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.0938
MADMean absolute deviation0.54
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0325
SAESum of the absolute errors31.8576
When FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOGICAL prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOGICAL trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent FUJIAN AONONG observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for FUJIAN AONONG

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOG. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of FUJIAN AONONG's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of FUJIAN AONONG in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.7213.4817.24
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
9.0612.8216.58
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
12.2616.6020.93
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FUJIAN AONONG. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FUJIAN AONONG's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FUJIAN AONONG's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOG.

Other Forecasting Options for FUJIAN AONONG

For every potential investor in FUJIAN, whether a beginner or expert, FUJIAN AONONG's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. FUJIAN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in FUJIAN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying FUJIAN AONONG's price trends.

FUJIAN AONONG Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with FUJIAN AONONG stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of FUJIAN AONONG could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing FUJIAN AONONG by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
SHANGHAI DOBE CULTZHEJIANG HUATIE EMERSAN BIAN SCIZHEJIANG SATELLITEJIANGSU NEW ENERGYYIBIN TIANYUAN GROLAOBAIXING PHARMACYGUI ZHOU TYREJIANGSU GENERAL SCIENCECHINA MEHECO LTDAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual European
 Risk & Return  Correlation

FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOG Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of FUJIAN AONONG's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of FUJIAN AONONG's current price.

FUJIAN AONONG Risk Indicators

The analysis of FUJIAN AONONG's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in FUJIAN AONONG's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting FUJIAN AONONG stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FUJIAN AONONG in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FUJIAN AONONG's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FUJIAN AONONG options trading.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of FUJIAN AONONG to cross-verify your projections. Note that the FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOG information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FUJIAN AONONG's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for FUJIAN Stock analysis

When running FUJIAN AONONG BIOLOG price analysis, check to measure FUJIAN AONONG's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FUJIAN AONONG is operating at the current time. Most of FUJIAN AONONG's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FUJIAN AONONG's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FUJIAN AONONG's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FUJIAN AONONG to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between FUJIAN AONONG's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine FUJIAN AONONG value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FUJIAN AONONG's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.