CHONG QING Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

000625
  

CNY 11.81  0.42  3.43%   

CHONG Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast CHONG QING historical stock prices and determine the direction of CHONG QING CHANGAN's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of CHONG QING historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Although CHONG QING naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm we recommend to always cross-verify it against solid analysis of CHONG QING CHANGAN systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of CHONG QING fundamentals over time.
Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CHONG QING to cross-verify your projections.
  
CHONG QING PPandE Turnover is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's PPandE Turnover was at 3.63. The current year Receivables Turnover is expected to grow to 3.41, whereas Inventory Turnover is forecasted to decline to 12.83. . The current year Weighted Average Shares is expected to grow to about 5.6 B. The current year Weighted Average Shares Diluted is expected to grow to about 5.6 B.
Most investors in CHONG QING cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the CHONG QING's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets CHONG QING's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for CHONG QING is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of CHONG QING CHANGAN value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

CHONG QING Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CHONG QING CHANGAN on the next trading day is expected to be 11.84 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.28, mean absolute percentage error of 0.12, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17.55.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CHONG Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CHONG QING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

CHONG QING Stock Forecast Pattern

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CHONG QING Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting CHONG QING's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. CHONG QING's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.15 and 14.53, respectively. We have considered CHONG QING's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11.81
11.84
Expected Value
14.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CHONG QING stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CHONG QING stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.8296
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2831
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0209
SAESum of the absolute errors17.5543
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of CHONG QING CHANGAN. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict CHONG QING. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for CHONG QING

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CHONG QING CHANGAN. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of CHONG QING's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of CHONG QING in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
9.1811.8114.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.3711.0013.63
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
11.5912.1212.65
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CHONG QING. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CHONG QING's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CHONG QING's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in CHONG QING CHANGAN.

Other Forecasting Options for CHONG QING

For every potential investor in CHONG, whether a beginner or expert, CHONG QING's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. CHONG Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in CHONG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying CHONG QING's price trends.

CHONG QING Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with CHONG QING stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of CHONG QING could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing CHONG QING by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
CHONG QING CHANGANCHINA MEHECO LTDGUIYANG XINTIAN PHAmn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanBhp BillitonNatural Hlth TrdUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondSeagate Technology Hldgs
 Risk & Return  Correlation

CHONG QING CHANGAN Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of CHONG QING's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of CHONG QING's current price.

CHONG QING Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how CHONG QING stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading CHONG QING shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying CHONG QING stock market strength indicators, traders can identify CHONG QING CHANGAN entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

CHONG QING Risk Indicators

The analysis of CHONG QING's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in CHONG QING's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting CHONG QING stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CHONG QING in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CHONG QING's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CHONG QING options trading.

Thematic Opportunities

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Build portfolios using Macroaxis predefined set of investing ideas. Many of Macroaxis investing ideas can easily outperform a given market. Ideas can also be optimized per your risk profile before portfolio origination is invoked. Macroaxis thematic optimization helps investors identify companies most likely to benefit from changes or shifts in various micro-economic or local macro-level trends. Originating optimal thematic portfolios involves aligning investors' personal views, ideas, and beliefs with their actual investments.
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Please continue to Historical Fundamental Analysis of CHONG QING to cross-verify your projections. Note that the CHONG QING CHANGAN information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CHONG QING's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for CHONG Stock analysis

When running CHONG QING CHANGAN price analysis, check to measure CHONG QING's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CHONG QING is operating at the current time. Most of CHONG QING's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CHONG QING's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CHONG QING's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CHONG QING to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between CHONG QING's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine CHONG QING value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CHONG QING's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.