Russell 2000 Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

RUT
 Index
  

 1,707  12.21  0.71%   

Russell Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Russell 2000 historical stock prices and determine the direction of Russell 2000 's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Russell 2000 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Russell 2000 to check your projections.
  
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Most investors in Russell 2000 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Russell 2000's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Russell 2000's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for Russell 2000 - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Russell 2000 prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Russell 2000 price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Russell 2000.

Russell 2000 Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 1st of July

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Russell 2000 on the next trading day is expected to be 1,703 with a mean absolute deviation of 34.71, mean absolute percentage error of 1,625, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2,048. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Russell Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Russell 2000's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Russell 2000 Index Forecast Pattern

Russell 2000 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Russell 2000's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Russell 2000's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,701 and 1,705, respectively. We have considered Russell 2000's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 1,707
1,703
Expected Value
1,705
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Russell 2000 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Russell 2000 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -5.5519
MADMean absolute deviation34.7079
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0189
SAESum of the absolute errors2047.7678
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Russell 2000 observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Russell 2000 observations.

Predictive Modules for Russell 2000

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Russell 2000. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Russell 2000's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Russell 2000 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
1,7051,7071,709
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
1,5911,5931,878
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
1,6321,7841,937
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Russell 2000. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Russell 2000's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Russell 2000's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Russell 2000.

Other Forecasting Options for Russell 2000

For every potential investor in Russell, whether a beginner or expert, Russell 2000's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Russell Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Russell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Russell 2000's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Russell 2000 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Russell 2000 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Russell 2000 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

Russell 2000 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Russell 2000's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Russell 2000's current price.

Russell 2000 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Russell 2000 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Russell 2000 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Russell 2000 index market strength indicators, traders can identify Russell 2000 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Russell 2000 Risk Indicators

The analysis of Russell 2000's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Russell 2000's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Russell 2000 stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Russell 2000 without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of Russell 2000 to check your projections. Note that the Russell 2000 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Russell 2000's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

Other Tools for Russell Index

When running Russell 2000 price analysis, check to measure Russell 2000's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Russell 2000 is operating at the current time. Most of Russell 2000's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Russell 2000's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Russell 2000's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Russell 2000 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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