NZSE Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

NZ50
 Index
  

 11,703  25.66  0.22%   

NZSE Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NZSE historical stock prices and determine the direction of NZSE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of NZSE historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of NZSE to check your projections.
  
Most investors in NZSE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NZSE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NZSE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for NZSE is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of NZSE value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

NZSE Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 9th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of NZSE on the next trading day is expected to be 11,824 with a mean absolute deviation of 116.58, mean absolute percentage error of 21,223, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7,111.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NZSE Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NZSE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NZSE Index Forecast Pattern

NZSE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NZSE's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NZSE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11,824 and 11,825, respectively. We have considered NZSE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 11,703
11,824
Downside
11,824
Expected Value
11,825
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NZSE index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NZSE index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria128.0733
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation116.5766
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0105
SAESum of the absolute errors7111.1725
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of NZSE. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict NZSE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for NZSE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NZSE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of NZSE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of NZSE in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
11,70211,70311,704
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
11,58511,58612,873
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NZSE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NZSE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NZSE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in NZSE.

Other Forecasting Options for NZSE

For every potential investor in NZSE, whether a beginner or expert, NZSE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NZSE Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NZSE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NZSE's price trends.

NZSE Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NZSE index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NZSE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NZSE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGX Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

NZSE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NZSE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NZSE's current price.

NZSE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NZSE index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NZSE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NZSE index market strength indicators, traders can identify NZSE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NZSE Risk Indicators

The analysis of NZSE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NZSE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting NZSE stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

NZSE Investors Sentiment

The influence of NZSE's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NZSE. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NZSE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NZSE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NZSE options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of NZSE to check your projections. Note that the NZSE information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NZSE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Search module to search for actively traded equities including funds and ETFs from over 30 global markets.

Other Tools for NZSE Index

When running NZSE price analysis, check to measure NZSE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NZSE is operating at the current time. Most of NZSE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NZSE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NZSE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NZSE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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