NYSE Index Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

NYA
 Index
  

 14,667  167.98  1.13%   

NYSE Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast NYSE historical stock prices and determine the direction of NYSE's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of NYSE historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of NYSE to check your projections.
  
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Most investors in NYSE cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the NYSE's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets NYSE's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
Triple exponential smoothing for NYSE - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When NYSE prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in NYSE price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of NYSE.

NYSE Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of June

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of NYSE on the next trading day is expected to be 14,648 with a mean absolute deviation of 190.28, mean absolute percentage error of 60,841, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11,227. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NYSE Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NYSE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

NYSE Index Forecast Pattern

NYSE Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting NYSE's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NYSE's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14,647 and 14,650, respectively. We have considered NYSE's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 14,667
14,647
Downside
14,648
Expected Value
14,650
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NYSE index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NYSE index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 35.663
MADMean absolute deviation190.2822
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0123
SAESum of the absolute errors11226.6503
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past NYSE observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older NYSE observations.

Predictive Modules for NYSE

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NYSE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of NYSE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of NYSE in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
14,66614,66714,669
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13,63913,64116,134
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
13,83115,13216,433
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NYSE. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NYSE's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NYSE's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in NYSE.

Other Forecasting Options for NYSE

For every potential investor in NYSE, whether a beginner or expert, NYSE's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NYSE Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NYSE. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NYSE's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NYSE index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NYSE could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NYSE by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

NYSE Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of NYSE's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of NYSE's current price.

NYSE Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NYSE index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NYSE shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NYSE index market strength indicators, traders can identify NYSE entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

NYSE Risk Indicators

The analysis of NYSE's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NYSE's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting NYSE stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

NYSE Investors Sentiment

The influence of NYSE's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in NYSE. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards NYSE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, NYSE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from NYSE options trading.

Current Sentiment - NYA

NYSE Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis investors are at this time bullish on NYSE. What is your trading attitude regarding investing in USA companies? Are you bullish or bearish on NYSE?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of NYSE to check your projections. Note that the NYSE information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NYSE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Instant Ratings module to determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Other Tools for NYSE Index

When running NYSE price analysis, check to measure NYSE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NYSE is operating at the current time. Most of NYSE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NYSE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NYSE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NYSE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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