Hang Seng Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

HSI
 Index
  

 19,773  9.12  0.0461%   

Hang Seng Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Hang Seng historical stock prices and determine the direction of Hang Seng's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of Hang Seng historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of Hang Seng to check your projections.
  
Most investors in Hang Seng cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the Hang Seng's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets Hang Seng's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for Hang Seng is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Hang Seng value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Hang Seng Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of August

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Hang Seng on the next trading day is expected to be 19,838 with a mean absolute deviation of 294.82, mean absolute percentage error of 130,129, and the sum of the absolute errors of 17,984.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Hang Seng Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Hang Seng's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Hang Seng Index Forecast Pattern

Hang Seng Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Hang Seng's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Hang Seng's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 19,837 and 19,840, respectively. We have considered Hang Seng's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 19,773
19,837
Downside
19,838
Expected Value
19,840
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Hang Seng index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Hang Seng index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria129.8868
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation294.8151
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors17983.7185
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Hang Seng. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Hang Seng. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Hang Seng

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hang Seng. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hang Seng's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Hang Seng in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
19,77119,77319,775
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
18,58518,58721,750
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
19,43920,20420,969
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hang Seng. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hang Seng's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hang Seng's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Hang Seng.

Other Forecasting Options for Hang Seng

For every potential investor in Hang Seng, whether a beginner or expert, Hang Seng's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Hang Seng Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Hang Seng. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Hang Seng's price trends.

Hang Seng Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Hang Seng index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Hang Seng could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Hang Seng by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
Amn Healthcare ServicesTwist Bioscience CorpFreedom Holding CorpKEURIG DR PEPPERGx Nasdaq-100 CoveredFranklin Mutual EuropeanGARDNER DENVER INCUSA Value FactorBetapro Canadian GoldAramark Holdings CorpLong-Term Govt BondLIFE STORAGE INCMaiden Holdings NorthVistra Energy CorpExxon Mobil Corp
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Hang Seng Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Hang Seng's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Hang Seng's current price.

Hang Seng Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Hang Seng index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Hang Seng shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Hang Seng index market strength indicators, traders can identify Hang Seng entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Hang Seng Risk Indicators

The analysis of Hang Seng's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Hang Seng's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting Hang Seng stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Hang Seng in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Hang Seng's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Hang Seng options trading.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of Hang Seng to check your projections. Note that the Hang Seng information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Hang Seng's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

Other Tools for Hang Seng Index

When running Hang Seng price analysis, check to measure Hang Seng's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hang Seng is operating at the current time. Most of Hang Seng's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hang Seng's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hang Seng's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hang Seng to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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