SP 500 Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

GSPC -  USA Index  

 3,901  0.57  0.0146%

SP 500 Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast SP 500 historical stock prices and determine the direction of SP 500's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of SP 500 historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of SP 500 to check your projections.
  
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Most investors in SP 500 cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the SP 500's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets SP 500's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for SP 500 is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of SP 500 value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

SP 500 Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of SP 500 on the next trading day is expected to be 3,831 with a mean absolute deviation of 50.67, mean absolute percentage error of 3,715, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3,091. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict SP 500 Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that SP 500's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

SP 500 Index Forecast Pattern

SP 500 Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting SP 500's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. SP 500's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3,829 and 3,832, respectively. We have considered SP 500's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 3,901
3,831
Expected Value
3,832
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of SP 500 index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent SP 500 index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria126.3306
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation50.6685
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0119
SAESum of the absolute errors3090.7758
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of SP 500. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict SP 500. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for SP 500

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SP 500. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of SP 500's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of SP 500 in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
3,8993,9013,902
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
3,6263,6284,291
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as SP 500. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against SP 500's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, SP 500's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in SP 500.

Other Forecasting Options for SP 500

For every potential investor in SP 500, whether a beginner or expert, SP 500's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. SP 500 Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in SP 500. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying SP 500's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with SP 500 index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of SP 500 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing SP 500 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

SP 500 Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of SP 500's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of SP 500's current price.

SP 500 Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how SP 500 index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading SP 500 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying SP 500 index market strength indicators, traders can identify SP 500 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

SP 500 Risk Indicators

The analysis of SP 500's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in SP 500's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting SP 500 stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

SP 500 Investors Sentiment

The influence of SP 500's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in SP 500. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards SP 500 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, SP 500's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from SP 500 options trading.

Current Sentiment - GSPC

SP 500 Investor Sentiment

Virtually all of Macroaxis investors are at this time bullish on SP 500. What is your outlook on investing in USA companies? Are you bullish or bearish on SP 500?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of SP 500 to check your projections. Note that the SP 500 information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other SP 500's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

Other Tools for SP 500 Index

When running SP 500 price analysis, check to measure SP 500's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SP 500 is operating at the current time. Most of SP 500's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SP 500's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SP 500's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SP 500 to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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