DOW Index Forecast - Naive Prediction

DJI -  USA Index  

 33,213  575.77  1.76%

DOW Index Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast DOW historical stock prices and determine the direction of DOW's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, solely looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. Macroaxis recommends to always use this module together with analysis of DOW historical fundamentals such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Check out fundamental analysis of DOW to check your projections.
  
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Most investors in DOW cannot accurately predict what will happen the next trading day because, historically, stock markets tend to be unpredictable and even illogical. Modeling turbulent structures requires applying different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden data structures or patterns within the DOW's time series price data and predict how it will affect future prices. One of these methodologies is forecasting, which interprets DOW's price structures and extracts relationships that further increase the generated results' accuracy.
A naive forecasting model for DOW is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of DOW value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

DOW Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of May

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of DOW on the next trading day is expected to be 33,660 with a mean absolute deviation of 331.08, mean absolute percentage error of 166,059, and the sum of the absolute errors of 20,196. Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DOW Index prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DOW's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

DOW Index Forecast Pattern

DOW Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting DOW's Index value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. DOW's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 33,658 and 33,661, respectively. We have considered DOW's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value 33,213
33,658
Downside
33,660
Expected Value
33,661
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DOW index data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DOW index, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria130.1306
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation331.0768
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0099
SAESum of the absolute errors20195.6837
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of DOW. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict DOW. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for DOW

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as DOW. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock or bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of DOW's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of DOW in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
33,21233,21333,214
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31,61731,61836,534
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
31,31933,58335,847
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as DOW. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against DOW's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, DOW's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in DOW.

Other Forecasting Options for DOW

For every potential investor in DOW, whether a beginner or expert, DOW's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. DOW Index price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in DOW. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying DOW's price trends.

View Currently Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with DOW index to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of DOW could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing DOW by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.

DOW Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of DOW's price movements, , a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of DOW's current price.

DOW Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how DOW index reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading DOW shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying DOW index market strength indicators, traders can identify DOW entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

DOW Risk Indicators

The analysis of DOW's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in helping accuretelly forecast its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in DOW's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some funamental techniques of forecasting DOW stock price, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stock investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

DOW Investors Sentiment

The influence of DOW's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in DOW. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards DOW in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, DOW's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from DOW options trading.

Current Sentiment - DJI

DOW Investor Sentiment

Most of Macroaxis investors are at this time bullish on DOW. What is your opinion about investing in USA companies? Are you bullish or bearish on DOW?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish
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Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Check out fundamental analysis of DOW to check your projections. Note that the DOW information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other DOW's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Flow Index module to determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators.

Other Tools for DOW Index

When running DOW price analysis, check to measure DOW's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy DOW is operating at the current time. Most of DOW's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of DOW's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move DOW's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of DOW to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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