Caterpillar Earnings Estimate

CAT
 Stock
  

USD 178.76  4.72  2.57%   

Many public companies, such as Caterpillar, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm. By analyzing Caterpillar's earnings estimates, investors can diagnose different trends across Caterpillar's analyst sentiment over time as well as compare current estimates against different timeframes.
Caterpillar is projected to generate 10.35 in earnings per share on the 31st of December 2021. Caterpillar earnings estimates module stress-tests analyst consensus about projected Caterpillar EPS (Earning Per Share) to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on its historical volatility. Continue to Trending Equities.
  
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Gross Profit is likely to drop to about 14 B in 2022. Profit Margin is likely to drop to 0.11 in 2022

Caterpillar Earnings Estimation Breakdown

Calculation of earning per share of Caterpillar is based on official Zacks consensus of 9 analysts regarding Caterpillar future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 89.9%, the future earnings per share of Caterpillar is estimated to be 10.35 with the lowest and highest values of 10.1 and 10.59, respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for Caterpillar is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses
  Current EPS 9.35
10.10
Lowest
Expected EPS 10.35
10.59
Highest

Caterpillar Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of Caterpillar's value are higher than the current market price of the Caterpillar stock. In this case, investors may conclude that Caterpillar is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and Caterpillar's stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyCurrent EPSEPS Estimate for 31st of December 2021

9

89.9%

9.35

10.35

Caterpillar Earnings History

Earnings estimate consensus by Caterpillar analysts from Wall Street is used by the market to judge Caterpillar's stock performance. The investors also use these earnings estimates to evaluate and project the stock performance into the future in order to make their investment decisions. However, we recommend analyzing not only Caterpillar's upcoming profit reports and earnings-per-share forecasts but also compare them to our different valuation methods.

Caterpillar Quarterly Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA

2.67 Billion

Share
Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to gain to 18.70 in 2022, whereas Accumulated Retained Earnings Deficit are likely to drop slightly above 38.7 B in 2022. Weighted Average Shares is likely to drop to about 537.9 M in 2022. Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to drop to about 544.1 M in 2022.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caterpillar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Caterpillar in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
179.64181.96184.28
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
162.91205.67207.99
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
171.25173.57175.89
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
164.00237.57270.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Caterpillar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Caterpillar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Caterpillar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Caterpillar.
Note that many institutional investors and large investment bankers can move markets due to the volume of Caterpillar assets they manage. They also follow analysts to some degree and often drive overall investor sentiments towards Caterpillar. With so many stockholders watching consensus numbers, the difference between actual and projected earnings is one of the most critical factors driving Caterpillar stock price in the short term.

Caterpillar Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

Actual Earning per Share of Caterpillar refers to what the company shows during its earnings calls or quarterly reports. The Expected EPS is what analysts covering Caterpillar predict the company's earnings will be in the future. The higher the earnings per share of Caterpillar, the better is its profitability. While calculating the Earning per Share, we use the weighted ratio, as the number of shares outstanding can change over time.

Caterpillar Estimated Earnings per Share

For an investor who is primarily interested in generating an income out of investing in entities such as Caterpillar, the EPS ratio can tell if the company is intending to increase its current dividend. Although EPS is an essential tool for investors, it should not be used in isolation. EPS of Caterpillar should always be considered in relation to other companies to make a more educated investment decision.

Caterpillar Quarterly Analyst Estimates and Surprise Metrics

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Caterpillar's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2022-04-28
2022-03-312.62.880.2810 
2022-01-28
2021-12-312.262.690.4319 
2021-10-28
2021-09-302.2022.660.45820 
2021-07-30
2021-06-302.40772.60.1923
2021-04-29
2021-03-311.93962.870.930447 
2021-01-29
2020-12-311.48822.120.631842 
2020-10-27
2020-09-301.17581.340.164213 
2020-07-31
2020-06-300.71861.030.311443 
2020-04-28
2020-03-311.67471.6-0.0747
2020-01-31
2019-12-312.38352.630.246510 
2019-10-23
2019-09-302.89282.66-0.2328
2019-07-24
2019-06-303.12352.83-0.2935
2019-04-24
2019-03-312.86492.940.0751
2019-01-28
2018-12-312.98942.55-0.439414 
2018-10-23
2018-09-302.85152.860.0085
2018-07-30
2018-06-302.73842.970.2316
2018-04-24
2018-03-312.12142.820.698632 
2018-01-25
2017-12-311.7822.160.37821 
2017-10-24
2017-09-301.28461.950.665451 
2017-07-25
2017-06-301.26371.490.226317 
2017-04-25
2017-03-310.62911.280.6509103 
2017-01-26
2016-12-310.66860.830.161424 
2016-10-25
2016-09-300.75720.850.092812 
2016-07-26
2016-06-300.95871.090.131313 
2016-04-22
2016-03-310.67690.67-0.0069
2016-01-28
2015-12-310.68870.740.0513
2015-10-22
2015-09-300.780.75-0.03
2015-07-23
2015-06-301.271.270
2015-04-23
2015-03-311.351.860.5137 
2015-01-27
2014-12-311.551.35-0.212 
2014-10-23
2014-09-301.361.720.3626 
2014-07-24
2014-06-301.521.690.1711 
2014-04-24
2014-03-311.241.610.3729 
2014-01-27
2013-12-311.281.580.323 
2013-10-23
2013-09-301.661.45-0.2112 
2013-07-24
2013-06-301.71.45-0.2514 
2013-04-22
2013-03-311.41.31-0.09
2013-01-28
2012-12-311.691.46-0.2313 
2012-10-22
2012-09-302.222.260.04
2012-07-25
2012-06-302.282.540.2611 
2012-04-25
2012-03-312.132.370.2411 
2012-01-26
2011-12-311.732.320.5934 
2011-10-24
2011-09-301.541.710.1711 
2011-07-22
2011-06-301.751.52-0.2313 
2011-04-29
2011-03-311.311.840.5340 
2011-01-27
2010-12-311.271.470.215 
2010-10-21
2010-09-301.091.220.1311 
2010-07-22
2010-06-300.850.990.1416 
2010-04-26
2010-03-310.390.36-0.03
2010-01-27
2009-12-310.280.410.1346 
2009-10-20
2009-09-300.060.640.58966 
2009-07-21
2009-06-300.220.720.5227 
2009-04-21
2009-03-310.040.390.35875 
2009-01-26
2008-12-311.291.08-0.2116 
2008-10-21
2008-09-301.411.39-0.02
2008-07-22
2008-06-301.541.740.212 
2008-04-18
2008-03-311.331.450.12
2008-01-25
2007-12-311.51.50
2007-10-19
2007-09-301.431.4-0.03
2007-07-20
2007-06-301.491.24-0.2516 
2007-04-20
2007-03-311.091.230.1412 
2007-01-26
2006-12-311.341.32-0.02
2006-10-20
2006-09-301.351.14-0.2115 
2006-07-21
2006-06-301.421.520.1
2006-04-24
2006-03-311.051.20.1514 
2006-01-26
2005-12-311.11.20.1
2005-10-21
2005-09-301.060.94-0.1211 
2005-07-21
2005-06-301.011.080.07
2005-04-20
2005-03-310.680.820.1420 
2005-01-27
2004-12-310.820.78-0.04
2004-10-21
2004-09-300.680.710.03
2004-07-22
2004-06-300.870.78-0.0910 
2004-04-22
2004-03-310.350.580.2365 
2004-01-27
2003-12-310.470.490.02
2003-10-16
2003-09-300.370.31-0.0616 
2003-07-17
2003-06-300.330.570.2472 
2003-04-16
2003-03-310.130.190.0646 
2003-01-23
2002-12-310.340.440.129 
2002-10-16
2002-09-300.280.310.0310 
2002-07-16
2002-06-300.360.29-0.0719 
2002-04-16
2002-03-310.120.120
2002-01-23
2001-12-310.380.380
2001-10-16
2001-09-300.310.3-0.01
2001-07-17
2001-06-300.350.390.0411 
2001-04-17
2001-03-310.250.24-0.01
2001-01-18
2000-12-310.330.380.0515 
2000-10-17
2000-09-300.290.310.02
2000-07-20
2000-06-300.430.450.02
2000-04-18
2000-03-310.290.370.0827 
2000-01-21
1999-12-310.320.340.02
1999-10-15
1999-09-300.30.310.01
1999-07-16
1999-06-300.40.39-0.01
1999-04-16
1999-03-310.210.290.0838 
1999-01-20
1998-12-310.420.420
1998-10-16
1998-09-300.50.46-0.04
1998-07-15
1998-06-300.620.61-0.01
1998-04-17
1998-03-310.550.570.02
1998-01-21
1997-12-310.560.60.04
1997-10-15
1997-09-300.460.520.0613 
1997-07-22
1997-06-300.550.570.02
1997-04-15
1997-03-310.430.520.0920 
1997-01-21
1996-12-310.470.50.03
1996-10-15
1996-09-300.350.40.0514 
1996-07-16
1996-06-300.410.490.0819 
1996-04-16
1996-03-310.370.380.01

About Caterpillar Earnings Estimate

The earnings estimate module is a useful tool to check what professional financial analysts are assuming about the future of Caterpillar earnings. We show available consensus EPS estimates for the upcoming years and quarters. Investors can also examine how these consensus opinions have evolved historically. We show current Caterpillar estimates, future projections, as well as estimates 1, 2, and three years ago. Investors can search for a specific entity to conduct investment planning and build diversified portfolios. Please note, earnings estimates provided by Macroaxis are the average expectations of expert analysts that we track. If a given stock such as Caterpillar fails to match professional earnings estimates, it usually performs purely. Wall Street refers to that as a 'negative surprise.' If a company 'beats' future estimates, it's usually called an 'upside surprise.'
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Accumulated Retained Earnings Deficit39.3 B38.7 B
Earning Before Interest and Taxes EBIT8.7 B7.9 B
Earnings per Basic Share 11.93  9.98 
Earnings per Diluted Share 11.83  9.87 
Price to Earnings Ratio 17.33  18.70 
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA11.1 B10.8 B
Earnings before Tax8.2 B7.4 B
Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois. Caterpillar operates under Farm Heavy Construction Machinery classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 107700 people.

Caterpillar Investors Sentiment

The influence of Caterpillar's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Caterpillar. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.

Caterpillar Implied Volatility

    
  43.85  
Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Caterpillar in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Caterpillar's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Caterpillar options trading.

Current Sentiment - CAT

Caterpillar Investor Sentiment

Predominant part of Macroaxis users are currently bullish on Caterpillar. What is your opinion about investing in Caterpillar? Are you bullish or bearish?
Bullish
Bearish
98% Bullish
2% Bearish

Pair Trading with Caterpillar

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Caterpillar position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Caterpillar will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Caterpillar Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Caterpillar could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Caterpillar when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Caterpillar - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Caterpillar to buy it.
The correlation of Caterpillar is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Caterpillar moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Caterpillar moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Caterpillar can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Trending Equities. Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Shere Portfolio module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.

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Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.032
Market Capitalization
100 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.063
Return On Equity
0.39
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.