Advance Auto Earnings Estimate

AAP
 Stock
  

USD 173.64  0.55  0.32%   

Many public companies, such as Advance Auto, manage the perception of their earnings on a regular basis to make sure that analyst estimates are accurate. Future earnings calculations are also an essential input when attempting to value a firm. By analyzing Advance Auto's earnings estimates, investors can diagnose different trends across Advance Auto's analyst sentiment over time as well as compare current estimates against different timeframes.
Advance Auto is projected to generate 11.87 in earnings per share on the 31st of December 2021. Advance Auto earnings estimates module stress-tests analyst consensus about projected Advance Auto Parts EPS (Earning Per Share) to derive its highest and lowest estimates based on its historical volatility. Please continue to Trending Equities.
  
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As of 4th of July 2022, Gross Profit is likely to drop to about 4.8 B. In addition to that, Profit Margin is likely to drop to 0.05
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Advance Auto Earnings Estimation Breakdown

Calculation of earning per share of Advance Auto Parts is based on official Zacks consensus of 8 analysts regarding Advance Auto future annual earnings. Given the historical accuracy of 96.08%, the future earnings per share of Advance Auto is estimated to be 11.87 with the lowest and highest values of 11.5 and 12.0, respectively. Please note that this consensus of annual earnings estimates for Advance Auto Parts is an estimate of EPS before non-recurring items and including employee stock options expenses
  Current EPS 9.82
11.50
Lowest
Expected EPS 11.87
12.00
Highest

Advance Auto Earnings Projection Consensus

Suppose the current estimates of Advance Auto's value are higher than the current market price of the Advance Auto stock. In this case, investors may conclude that Advance Auto is overpriced and will exhibit bullish sentiment. On the other hand, if the present value is lower than the stock price, analysts may conclude that the market undervalues the equity. These scenarios may suggest that the market is not as efficient as it should be at the estimation time, and Advance Auto's stock will quickly adjusts to the new information provided by the consensus estimate.
Number of AnalystsHistorical AccuracyCurrent EPSEPS Estimate for 31st of December 2021

8

96.08%

9.82

11.87

Advance Auto Earnings History

Earnings estimate consensus by Advance Auto Parts analysts from Wall Street is used by the market to judge Advance Auto's stock performance. The investors also use these earnings estimates to evaluate and project the stock performance into the future in order to make their investment decisions. However, we recommend analyzing not only Advance Auto's upcoming profit reports and earnings-per-share forecasts but also compare them to our different valuation methods.

Advance Auto Quarterly Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA

281.58 Million

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Advance Auto Earning Before Interest and Taxes EBIT is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Earning Before Interest and Taxes EBIT of 843.72 Million. As of 4th of July 2022, Price to Earnings Ratio is likely to grow to 27.43, while Earnings per Diluted Share are likely to drop 8.29. Advance Auto Weighted Average Shares is very stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Advance Auto reported last year Weighted Average Shares of 64.03 Million. As of 4th of July 2022, Weighted Average Shares Diluted is likely to grow to about 72.8 M, though Issuance Purchase of Equity Shares is likely to grow to (482.6 M).
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Advance Auto's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Advance Auto in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
170.99173.58176.17
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
156.28206.02208.61
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
178.18180.77183.36
Details
15 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
175.00255.77290.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Advance Auto. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Advance Auto's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Advance Auto's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Advance Auto Parts.
Note that many institutional investors and large investment bankers can move markets due to the volume of Advance assets they manage. They also follow analysts to some degree and often drive overall investor sentiments towards Advance Auto. With so many stockholders watching consensus numbers, the difference between actual and projected earnings is one of the most critical factors driving Advance stock price in the short term.

Advance Auto Earnings per Share Projection vs Actual

Actual Earning per Share of Advance Auto refers to what the company shows during its earnings calls or quarterly reports. The Expected EPS is what analysts covering Advance Auto Parts predict the company's earnings will be in the future. The higher the earnings per share of Advance Auto, the better is its profitability. While calculating the Earning per Share, we use the weighted ratio, as the number of shares outstanding can change over time.

Advance Auto Estimated Earnings per Share

For an investor who is primarily interested in generating an income out of investing in entities such as Advance Auto, the EPS ratio can tell if the company is intending to increase its current dividend. Although EPS is an essential tool for investors, it should not be used in isolation. EPS of Advance Auto should always be considered in relation to other companies to make a more educated investment decision.

Advance Quarterly Analyst Estimates and Surprise Metrics

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Advance Auto's stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2022-05-23
2022-03-313.593.57-0.02
2022-02-14
2021-12-311.972.070.1
2021-11-15
2021-09-302.84973.210.360312 
2021-08-24
2021-06-303.05263.40.347411 
2021-06-02
2021-03-313.07563.340.2644
2021-02-16
2020-12-311.99161.87-0.1216
2020-11-10
2020-09-302.672.810.14
2020-08-18
2020-06-301.96552.920.954548 
2020-05-19
2020-03-311.58890.91-0.678942 
2020-02-18
2019-12-311.35011.640.289921 
2019-11-12
2019-09-302.05432.10.0457
2019-08-13
2019-06-302.20762-0.2076
2019-05-22
2019-03-312.37242.460.0876
2019-02-19
2018-12-311.12821.170.0418
2018-11-13
2018-09-301.75671.890.1333
2018-08-14
2018-06-301.85681.970.1132
2018-05-22
2018-03-311.96492.10.1351
2018-02-21
2017-12-310.6450.770.12519 
2017-11-14
2017-09-301.20671.430.223318 
2017-08-15
2017-06-301.65651.58-0.0765
2017-05-24
2017-03-312.13651.6-0.536525 
2017-02-21
2016-12-311.08621-0.0862
2016-11-14
2016-09-301.71191.730.0181
2016-08-16
2016-06-302.10991.9-0.2099
2016-05-19
2016-03-312.61012.51-0.1001
2016-02-11
2015-12-311.20291.220.0171
2015-11-12
2015-09-302.091.95-0.14
2015-08-13
2015-06-302.252.270.02
2015-05-21
2015-03-312.482.39-0.09
2015-02-12
2014-12-311.481.540.06
2014-11-06
2014-09-301.881.890.01
2014-08-14
2014-06-302.012.080.07
2014-05-15
2014-03-312.162.250.09
2014-02-06
2013-12-310.790.67-0.1215 
2013-10-31
2013-09-301.41.420.02
2013-08-08
2013-06-301.481.590.11
2013-05-23
2013-03-311.621.650.03
2013-02-07
2012-12-310.750.880.1317 
2012-11-08
2012-09-301.211.210
2012-08-09
2012-06-301.391.34-0.05
2012-05-17
2012-03-311.811.79-0.02
2012-02-16
2011-12-310.750.90.1520 
2011-11-09
2011-09-301.181.410.2319 
2011-08-10
2011-06-301.381.460.08
2011-05-18
2011-03-311.381.35-0.03
2011-02-09
2010-12-310.540.570.03
2010-11-10
2010-09-300.931.030.110 
2010-08-11
2010-06-301.031.160.1312 
2010-05-19
2010-03-3111.190.1919 
2010-02-17
2009-12-310.460.39-0.0715 
2009-11-11
2009-09-300.660.690.03
2009-08-12
2009-06-300.840.890.05
2009-05-20
2009-03-310.921.020.110 
2009-02-18
2008-12-310.370.510.1437 
2008-10-29
2008-09-300.570.590.02
2008-08-06
2008-06-300.720.790.07
2008-05-15
2008-03-310.780.860.0810 
2008-02-13
2007-12-310.370.35-0.02
2007-10-31
2007-09-300.580.610.03
2007-08-08
2007-06-300.660.64-0.02
2007-05-16
2007-03-310.710.710
2007-02-15
2006-12-310.330.330
2006-11-02
2006-09-300.530.560.03
2006-08-10
2006-06-300.580.590.01
2006-05-18
2006-03-310.690.68-0.01
2006-02-16
2005-12-310.360.360
2005-11-03
2005-09-300.550.550
2005-08-10
2005-06-300.580.60.02
2005-05-18
2005-03-310.580.630.05
2005-02-16
2004-12-310.30.310.01
2004-11-03
2004-09-300.450.450
2004-08-11
2004-06-300.460.470.01
2004-05-19
2004-03-310.440.450.01
2004-02-18
2003-12-310.270.30.0311 
2003-10-29
2003-09-300.410.410
2003-08-07
2003-06-300.350.40.0514 
2003-05-14
2003-03-310.250.330.0832 
2003-02-12
2002-12-310.140.140
2002-11-18
2002-09-300.290.310.02
2002-08-14
2002-06-300.240.260.02
2002-05-22
2002-03-310.180.180
2002-02-20
2001-12-310.010.010

About Advance Auto Earnings Estimate

The earnings estimate module is a useful tool to check what professional financial analysts are assuming about the future of Advance Auto earnings. We show available consensus EPS estimates for the upcoming years and quarters. Investors can also examine how these consensus opinions have evolved historically. We show current Advance Auto estimates, future projections, as well as estimates 1, 2, and three years ago. Investors can search for a specific entity to conduct investment planning and build diversified portfolios. Please note, earnings estimates provided by Macroaxis are the average expectations of expert analysts that we track. If a given stock such as Advance Auto fails to match professional earnings estimates, it usually performs purely. Wall Street refers to that as a 'negative surprise.' If a company 'beats' future estimates, it's usually called an 'upside surprise.'
Please read more on our stock advisor page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Accumulated Retained Earnings Deficit4.6 B3.7 B
Earning Before Interest and Taxes EBIT843.7 M864.5 M
Earnings per Basic Share 9.62  8.34 
Earnings per Diluted Share 9.55  8.29 
Price to Earnings Ratio 24.94  27.43 
Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA1.1 B1.1 B
Earnings before Tax805.9 M813 M
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. provides automotive replacement parts, accessories, batteries, and maintenance items for domestic and imported cars, vans, sport utility vehicles, and light and heavy duty trucks. The company was founded in 1929 and is based in Raleigh, North Carolina. Advance Auto operates under Specialty Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 41000 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Advance Auto without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate.risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Advance Auto

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Advance Auto position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Advance Auto will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Advance Auto Pair Correlation

Correlation Analysis For Direct Indexing and Tax-loss Harvesting

The ability to find closely correlated positions to Advance Auto could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Advance Auto when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Advance Auto - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Advance Auto Parts to buy it.
The correlation of Advance Auto is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Advance Auto moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Advance Auto Parts moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Advance Auto can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Trending Equities. Note that the Advance Auto Parts information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Advance Auto's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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Is Advance Auto's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Advance Auto. If investors know Advance will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Advance Auto listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
-0.2
Market Capitalization
10.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.013
Return On Assets
0.0434
Return On Equity
0.18
The market value of Advance Auto Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Advance that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Advance Auto's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Advance Auto's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Advance Auto's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Advance Auto's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Advance Auto's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Advance Auto value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Advance Auto's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.