American Stock Volatility

APEI
 Stock
  

USD 13.78  0.36  2.68%   

American Public appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. American Public Education secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.2, which signifies that the company had 0.2% of return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Our philosophy in foreseeing the volatility of a stock is to use all available market data together with stock-specific technical indicators that cannot be diversified away. By analyzing American Public Education technical indicators you can presently evaluate if the expected return of 0.69% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of American Public's mean deviation of 2.64, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2007 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations.
  
American Public Stock volatility depicts how high the prices fluctuate around the mean (or its average) price. In other words, it is a statistical measure of the distribution of American daily returns, and it is calculated using variance and standard deviation. We also use American's beta, its sensitivity to the market, as well as its odds of financial distress to provide a more practical estimation of American Public volatility.

720 Days Market Risk

Not too volatile

Chance of Distress

720 Days Economic Sensitivity

Slowly supersedes the market
Since volatility provides investors with entry points to take advantage of stock prices, companies, such as American Public can benefit from it. Downward market volatility can be a perfect environment for investors who play the long game. Here, they may decide to buy additional stocks of American Public at lower prices. For example, an investor can purchase American stock that has halved in price over a short period. This will lower your average cost per share, thereby improving your portfolio's performance when the markets normalize. Similarly, when the prices of American Public's stock rises, investors can sell out and invest the proceeds in other equities with better opportunities. Investing when markets are volatile with better valuations will accord both investors and companies the opportunity to generate better long-term returns.

Moving together with American Public

+0.83ATGEAdtalem Global EducationPairCorr
+0.93GHCGraham Holdings Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.85LOPEGrand Canyon Education Downward RallyPairCorr
+0.62UTIUniversal TechnicalPairCorr

Moving against American Public

-0.86BLNKBlink Charging Normal TradingPairCorr
-0.85APRNBlue Apron HoldingsPairCorr
-0.84AMZNAmazon IncPairCorr
-0.7BLDTopbuild CorpPairCorr
-0.62BABAAlibaba Group Holding TrendingPairCorr
-0.54LRNStride IncPairCorr

American Public Market Sensitivity And Downside Risk

American Public's beta coefficient measures the volatility of American stock compared to the systematic risk of the entire stock market represented by your selected benchmark. In mathematical terms, beta represents the slope of the line through a regression of data points where each of these points represents American stock's returns against your selected market. In other words, American Public's beta of 0.42 provides an investor with an approximation of how much risk American Public stock can potentially add to one of your existing portfolios.
American Public Education currently demonstrates below-average downside deviation. It has Information Ratio of 0.09 and Jensen Alpha of 0.39. However, we advise investors to further question American Public Education expected returns to ensure all indicators are consistent with the current outlook about its relatively low value at risk. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure American Public's stock risk against market volatility during both bullish and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact American Public's stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.
3 Months Beta |Analyze American Public Education Demand Trend
Check current 90 days American Public correlation with market (NYSE Composite)

American Beta

    
  0.42  
American standard deviation measures the daily dispersion of prices over your selected time horizon relative to its mean. Typical volatile equity has a high standard deviation, while the deviation of a stable instrument is usually low. As a downside, the standard deviation calculates all uncertainty as risk, even when it is in your favor, such as above-average returns.

Standard Deviation

    
  3.43  
It is essential to understand the difference between upside risk (as represented by American Public's standard deviation) and the downside risk, which can be measured by semi-deviation or downside deviation of American Public's daily returns or price. Since the actual investment returns on holding a position in american stock tend to have a non-normal distribution, there will be different probabilities for losses than for gains. The likelihood of losses is reflected in the downside risk of an investment in American Public.

Using American Put Option to Manage Risk

Put options written on American Public grant holders of the option the right to sell a specified amount of American Public at a specified price within a specified time frame. The put buyer has a limited loss and, while not fully unlimited gains, as the price of American Stock cannot fall below zero, the put buyer does gain as the price drops. So, one way investors can hedge American Public's position is by buying a put option against it. The put option used this way is usually referred to as insurance. If an undesired outcome occurs and loss on holding American Public will be realized, the loss incurred will be offset by the profits made with the option trade.

American Public's PUT expiring on 2022-12-16

   Profit   
Share
       American Public Price At Expiration  

Current American Public Insurance Chain

DeltaGammaOpen IntExpirationCurrent SpreadLast Price
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $25.0-0.92890.027212022-12-1610.9 - 12.50.0View
Put
2022-12-16 PUT at $15.0-0.62040.111712022-12-160.7 - 2.350.0View
View All American Public Options

American Public Education Stock Volatility Analysis

Volatility refers to the frequency at which American Public stock price increases or decreases within a specified period. These fluctuations usually indicate the level of risk that's associated with American Public's price changes. Investors will then calculate the volatility of American Public's stock to predict their future moves. A stock that has erratic price changes quickly hits new highs, and lows are considered highly volatile. A stock with relatively stable price changes has low volatility. A highly volatile stock is riskier, but the risk cuts both ways. Investing in highly volatile security can either be highly successful, or you may experience significant failure. There are two main types of American Public's volatility:

Historical Volatility

This type of stock volatility measures American Public's fluctuations based on previous trends. It's commonly used to predict American Public's future behavior based on its past. However, it cannot conclusively determine the future direction of the stock.

Implied Volatility

This type of volatility provides a positive outlook on future price fluctuations for American Public's current market price. This means that the stock will return to its initially predicted market price. This type of volatility can be derived from derivative instruments written on American Public's to be redeemed at a future date.
Transformation
The output start index for this execution was zero with a total number of output elements of sixty-one. American Public Education Average Price is the average of the sum of open, high, low and close daily prices of a bar. It can be used to smooth an indicator that normally takes just the closing price as input.
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American Public Projected Return Density Against Market

Given the investment horizon of 90 days American Public has a beta of 0.4163 . This suggests as returns on the market go up, American Public average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American Public Education will be expected to be much smaller as well.
Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Public or Diversified Consumer Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Public's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision.
The company has an alpha of 0.3928, implying that it can generate a 0.39 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  
American Public's volatility is measured either by using standard deviation or beta. Standard deviation will reflect the average amount of how american stock's price will differ from the mean after some time.To get its calculation, you should first determine the mean price during the specified period then subtract that from each price point.

What Drives an American Public Price Volatility?

Several factors can influence a Stock's stock volatility:

Industry

Specific events can influence volatility within a particular industry. For instance, a significant weather upheaval in a crucial oil-production site may cause oil prices to increase in the oil sector. The direct result will be the rise in the stock price of oil distribution companies. Similarly, any government regulation in a specific industry could negatively influence stock prices due to increased regulations on compliance that may impact the company's future earnings and growth.

Political and Economic environment

When governments make significant decisions regarding trade agreements, policies, and legislation regarding specific industries, they will influence stock prices. Everything from speeches to elections may influence investors, who can directly influence the stock prices in any particular industry. The prevailing economic situation also plays a significant role in stock prices. When the economy is doing well, investors will have a positive reaction and hence, better stock prices and vice versa.

The Company's Performance

Sometimes volatility will only affect an individual company. For example, a revolutionary product launch or strong earnings report may attract many investors to purchase the company. This positive attention will raise the company's stock price. In contrast, product recalls and data breaches may negatively influence a company's stock prices.

American Public Stock Risk Measures

Most traded equities are subject to two types of risk - systematic (i.e., market) and unsystematic (i.e., nonmarket or company-specific) risk. Unsystematic risk is the risk that events specific to American Public or Diversified Consumer Services sector will adversely affect the stock's price. This type of risk can be diversified away by owning several different stocks in different industries whose stock prices have shown a small correlation to each other. On the other hand, systematic risk is the risk that American Public's price will be affected by overall stock market movements and cannot be diversified away. So, no matter how many positions you have, you cannot eliminate market risk. However, you can measure a American stock's historical response to market movements and buy it if you are comfortable with its volatility direction. Beta and standard deviation are two commonly used measures to help you make the right decision. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the coefficient of variation of American Public is 497.83. The daily returns are distributed with a variance of 11.79 and standard deviation of 3.43. The mean deviation of American Public Education is currently at 2.61. For similar time horizon, the selected benchmark (NYSE Composite) has volatility of 1.51
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.39
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.42
σ
Overall volatility
3.43
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

American Public Stock Return Volatility

American Public historical daily return volatility represents how much of American Public stock's daily returns swing around its mean - it is a statistical measure of its dispersion of returns. The company inherits 3.434% risk (volatility on return distribution) over the 90 days horizon. By contrast, NYSE Composite accepts 1.506% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon.
 Performance (%) 
       Timeline  

About American Public Volatility

Volatility is a rate at which the price of American Public or any other equity instrument increases or decreases for a given set of returns. It is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns over a given period of time and shows the range to which the price of American Public may increase or decrease. In other words, similar to American's beta indicator, it measures the risk of American Public and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. So if prices of American Public fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility, and if it swings slowly in a more extended period, it is understood to have low volatility.
Please read more on our technical analysis page.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Market Capitalization416.3 M436.7 M

American Public Investment Opportunity

American Public Education has a volatility of 3.43 and is 2.27 times more volatile than NYSE Composite. 29  of all equities and portfolios are less risky than American Public. Compared to the overall equity markets, volatility of historical daily returns of American Public Education is lower than 29 () of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. Use American Public Education to enhance the returns of your portfolios. Benchmarks are essential to demonstrate the utility of optimization algorithms. The stock experiences an unexpected upward trend. Watch out for market signals. Check odds of American Public to be traded at $16.54 in 90 days.

Average diversification

The correlation between American Public Education and NYA is 0.18 (i.e., Average diversification) for selected investment horizon. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding American Public Education and NYA in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed.

American Public Additional Risk Indicators

The analysis of American Public's secondary risk indicators is one of the essential steps in making a buy or sell decision. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Public's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some common measures of American Public stock's risk such as standard deviation, beta, or value at risk, we also provide a set of secondary indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential stocks, we recommend comparing similar stocks with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

American Public Suggested Diversification Pairs

Pair trading is one of the very effective strategies used by professional day traders and hedge funds capitalizing on short-time and mid-term market inefficiencies. The approach is based on the fact that the ratio of prices of two correlating shares is long-term stable and oscillates around the average value. If the correlation ratio comes outside the common area, you can speculate with a high success rate that the ratio will return to the mean value and collect a profit.
The effect of pair diversification on risk is to reduce it, but we should note this doesn't apply to all risk types. When we trade pairs against American Public as a counterpart, there is always some inherent risk that will never be diversified away no matter what. This volatility limits the effect of tactical diversification using pair trading. American Public's systematic risk is the inherent uncertainty of the entire market, and therefore cannot be mitigated even by pair-trading it against the equity that is not highly correlated to it. On the other hand, American Public's unsystematic risk describes the types of risk that we can protect against, at least to some degree, by selecting a matching pair that is not perfectly correlated to American Public Education.
Please continue to Trending Equities. Note that the American Public Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Public's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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When running American Public Education price analysis, check to measure American Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Public is operating at the current time. Most of American Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Public's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Public. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Public listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.43) 
Market Capitalization
253.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.52
Return On Assets
0.0264
Return On Equity
(0.28) 
The market value of American Public Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Public's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Public's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Public's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Public's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Public's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Public value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Public's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.