Tillys Stock Analysis

TLYS
 Stock
  

USD 9.60  0.19  2.02%   

The latest spike in Tillys Inc short term price appreciation created some momentum for retail investors as it was traded today as low as 9.44 and as high as 9.6 per share. The company executives have successfully maneuvered the company at convenient times to take advantage of all market conditions in October. The stock standard deviation of daily returns for 90 days investing horizon is currently 2.31. The current volatility is consistent with the ongoing market swings in October 2022 as well as with Tillys Inc unsystematic, company-specific events.
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The Tillys stock analysis report makes it easy to digest most publicly released information about Tillys and get updates on important government artifacts, including earning estimates, SEC corporate filings, and announcements. Tillys Stock analysis module also helps to analyze the Tillys price relationship with some important fundamental indicators such as market cap and management efficiency.

Tillys Stock Analysis Notes

About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.74. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tillys Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.99. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.04. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2021. Tillys, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of casual apparel, footwear, accessories, and hardgoods for young men and women, and boys and girls in the United States. Tillys, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Irvine, California. Tillys operates under Apparel Retail classification in the United States and is traded on New York Stock Exchange. It employs 1450 people. To find out more about Tillys Inc contact Edmond Thomas at 949 609-5599 or learn more at www.tillys.com.

Tillys Inc Investment Alerts

Many investors view ongoing market volatility as an opportunity to purchase more stocks at a favorable price or short it to generate a bearish trend profit opportunity. If you are one of those investors, make sure you clearly understand the position you are entering. Tillys' investment alerts are automatically generated signals that are significant enough to either complement your investing judgment regarding Tillys Inc or challenge it. These alerts can help you understand what you are buying and avoid costly mistakes.
Tillys Inc has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from news.google.com: Stocks Soar as Bond Yields Plunge on Soft U.S. Consumer Prices - Barchart

Tillys Inc Upcoming and Recent Events

Earnings reports are used by Tillys to provide an update of all three financial statements, including the income statement, the balance sheet, and the cash flow statement. Every quarterly earnings report provides investors with three things: an overview of sales, expenses, and net income for the most recent period. It also may provide a comparison to Tillys previous reporting period. The quarterly earnings reports are usually disseminated to the public via Form 10-Q, which is a legal document filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission every quarter.
Upcoming Quarterly Report10th of March 2022
Next Financial Report2nd of June 2022
Next Fiscal Quarter End31st of January 2022
Next Fiscal Year End10th of March 2022
Last Quarter Report31st of October 2021
Last Financial Announcement31st of January 2021

Tillys Largest EPS Surprises

Earnings surprises can significantly impact Tillys' stock price both in the short term and over time. Negative earnings surprises usually result in a price decline. However, it has been seen that positive earnings surprises lead to an immediate rise in a stock's price and a gradual increase over time. This is why we often hear news about some companies beating earning projections. Financial analysts spend a large amount of time predicting earnings per share (EPS) along with other important future indicators. Many analysts use forecasting models, management guidance, and additional fundamental information to derive an EPS estimate.
Reported
Fiscal Date
Estimated EPS
Reported EPS
Surprise
2015-12-02
2015-11-300.140.160.0214 
2015-08-26
2015-05-310.040.02-0.0250 
2013-08-28
2013-05-310.130.150.0215 
View All Earnings Estimates

Tillys Stock Institutional Investors

Have you ever been surprised when a price of an equity instrument such as Tillys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tillys Inc backward and forwards among themselves. Tillys' institutional investor refers to the entity that pools money to purchase Tillys' securities or originate loans. Institutional investors include commercial and private banks, credit unions, insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, endowments, and mutual funds. Operating companies that invest excess capital in these types of assets may also be included in the term and may influence corporate governance by exercising voting rights in their investments.
Security TypeSharesValue
Zacks Investment ManagementCommon Shares10.2 K143 K
Zacks Investment ManagementCommon Shares10.3 K93 K
Yacktman Asset Management LpCommon Shares150 K1.7 M
Yacktman Asset Management LpCommon Shares169 K1.4 M
Yacktman Asset Management LpCommon Shares202 K1.2 M
Yacktman Asset Management LpCommon Shares232 K1.3 M
Yacktman Asset Management LpCommon Shares220.3 K910 K
Wolverine Trading LlcCall Options12.2 K197 K
Wolverine Trading LlcPut Options18.8 K209 K
Note, although Tillys' institutional investors appear to be way more sophisticated than retail investors, it remains unclear if professional active investment managers can reliably enhance risk-adjusted returns by an amount that exceeds fees and expenses.

Tillys Market Capitalization

The company currently falls under 'Small-Cap' category with current market capitalization of 291.39 M. Market capitalization usually refers to the total value of a company's stock within the entire market. To calculate Tillys's market, we take the total number of its shares issued and multiply it by Tillys's current market price. To manage market risk and economic uncertainty, many investors today build portfolios that are diversified across equities with different market capitalizations. However, as a general rule, conservative investors tend to hold large-cap stocks, and these looking for more risk prefer small-cap and mid-cap equities.

Tillys Profitablity

Tillys' profitability indicators refer to fundamental financial ratios that showcase Tillys' ability to generate income relative to its revenue or operating costs. If, let's say, Tillys is currently losing money, the management's focus should be on how to reverse that trend. However, when revenue exceeds expenses, Tillys' executives or investors may be in less hurry to break that information down - which is where profitability analysis comes into play. Gaining a greater understanding of Tillys' profitability requires more research than a typical breakdown of Tillys' financial statements. By doing a profitability analysis, companies can identify areas needing attention, and investors can make a profitable trade.
The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 5.18 %, which can signify that it executes well on its competitive strategies and has good control over its expenditures. This is normal as compared to the sector avarege. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 7.24 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of 0.07.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Return on Investment 52.24  35.49 
Return on Average Assets 12.72  9.72 
Return on Average Equity 38.32  25.12 
Return on Invested Capital 0.17  0.23 
Return on Sales 0.05  0.06 

Management Efficiency

The entity has return on total asset (ROA) of 6.23 % which means that it generated profit of $6.23 on every $100 spent on asset. This is normal as compared to the sector avarege. Similarly, it shows return on stockholders equity (ROE) of 21.89 %, meaning that it created $21.89 on every $100 dollars invested by stockholders. Tillys management efficiency ratios could be used to measure how well tillys inc manages its routine affairs as well as how well it operates its assets and liabilities. Tillys Return on Invested Capital is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Tillys reported last year Return on Invested Capital of 0.17. As of 11/28/2022, Return on Sales is likely to grow to 0.06, while Return on Investment is likely to drop 35.49. Tillys Revenue to Assets are relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Tillys reported last year Revenue to Assets of 1.54. As of 11/28/2022, Net Current Assets as percentage of Total Assets is likely to grow to 29.60, while Current Assets are likely to drop slightly above 200.7 M.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Book Value per Share 5.09  4.58 
Enterprise Value over EBIT 17.25  15.45 
Enterprise Value over EBITDA 9.25  8.59 
Price to Book Value 2.80  2.81 
Tangible Assets Book Value per Share 8.27  7.72 
Enterprise Value410.7 M388 M
Tangible Asset Value231.8 M208.9 M

Technical Drivers

As of the 28th of November, Tillys has the Coefficient Of Variation of 724.29, risk adjusted performance of 0.199, and Semi Deviation of 2.16. In relation to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model makes it possible for you to check existing technical drivers of Tillys Inc, as well as the relationship between them. In other words, you can use this information to find out if the company will indeed mirror its model of past prices and volume data, or the prices will eventually revert. We have analyzed and interpolated nineteen technical drivers for Tillys Inc, which can be compared to its competition. Please validate Tillys Inc standard deviation, value at risk, as well as the relationship between the Value At Risk and kurtosis to decide if Tillys is priced more or less accurately, providing market reflects its prevalent price of 9.6 per share. Given that Tillys Inc has jensen alpha of 0.2365, we advise you to double-check Tillys Inc's current market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Tillys Inc Price Movement Analysis

The output start index for this execution was twenty-nine with a total number of output elements of thirty-two. The Exponential Moving Average is calculated by weighting recent values of Tillys Inc more heavily than older values.
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Tillys Inc Insider Trading Activities

Some recent studies suggest that insider trading raises the cost of capital for securities issuers and decreases overall economic growth. Trading by specific Tillys insiders, such as employees or executives, is commonly permitted as long as it does not rely on Tillys' material information that is not in the public domain. Local jurisdictions usually require such trading to be reported in order to monitor insider transactions. In many U.S. states, trading conducted by corporate officers, key employees, directors, or significant shareholders must be reported to the regulator or publicly disclosed, usually within a few business days of the trade. In these cases Tillys insiders are required to file a Form 4 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when buying or selling shares of their own companies.

Tillys Technical and Predictive Indicators

Tillys Forecast Models

Tillys time-series forecasting models is one of many Tillys' stock analysis techniquest aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models ae widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties e.g. the mean and standard deviation are not constant over time but instead, these metrics vary over time. These non-stationary Tillys' historical data is usually called time-series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

About Tillys Stock Analysis

Stock analysis is the technique used by a trader or investor to examine and evaluate how Tillys prices is reacting to, or reflecting on a current market direction and economic conditions. It can be used to make informed decisions about market timing, and when buying or selling Tillys shares will generate the highest return on investment. We also built our stock analysis module to help investors to gain an insight into the world economy as a whole, the stock market, thematic ideas, a specific sector, or an individual Stock such as Tillys. By using and applying Tillys Stock analysis, traders can create a robust methodology for identifying Tillys entry and exit points for their positions.
Last ReportedProjected for 2022
Operating Margin 11.29  8.30 
EBITDA Margin 13.38  11.55 
Gross Margin 35.67  34.57 
Profit Margin 8.28  5.79 

Current Tillys Analysis - Recommendations

We track the performance of the top 100 financial experts across various large and mid-size financial boutiques. Tillys analyst recommendations are determined by taking all analyst recommendations and averaging them as Strong Buy, Buy, Hold, Strong Sell or Sell. There is no one specific way to measure analysis performance other than comparing it to the past results via a very sophisticated attribution analysis. Tillys analyst consensus and target price projections should be used in combination with other traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, earnings estimate, and various momentum models.
Target PriceAdvice# of Analysts
23.0Strong Buy2Odds
Tillys Inc current and past analyst recommendations published by a number of research institutions as well as average analyst consensus.
Most Tillys analysts issue ratings four times a year, at intervals of three months. Ratings are usually accompanied by a target price to helps potential investors understand Tillys stock's fair price compared to its market value. Analysts arrive at stock ratings after researching public financial statements of Tillys Inc, talking to its executives and customers, or listening to Tillys conference calls.
Tillys Analyst Advice Details

Tillys Stock Analysis Indicators

Tillys Inc stock analysis indicators help investors evaluate how Tillys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing and determine when trading Tillys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By understating and applying Tillys stock analysis, traders can identify Tillys position entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Quick Ratio0.89
Fifty Two Week Low6.65
Revenue Growth-16.70%
Shares Short Prior Month853.83k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day193.79k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month217.45k
Earnings Growth-80.70%
Shares Percent Shares Out3.57%
Earnings Quarterly Growth-81.30%
Gross Margins44.39%
Short Percent Of Float4.78%
Forward Price Earnings18.82
Float Shares22.3M
Fifty Two Week High17.04
Enterprise Value To Ebitda5.82
Fifty Day Average8.13
Two Hundred Day Average8.70
Enterprise Value To Revenue0.54
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When running Tillys Inc price analysis, check to measure Tillys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tillys is operating at the current time. Most of Tillys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tillys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tillys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tillys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tillys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tillys. If investors know Tillys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tillys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.81) 
Market Capitalization
289.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.17) 
Return On Assets
0.0623
Return On Equity
0.22
The market value of Tillys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tillys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tillys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tillys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tillys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tillys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tillys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tillys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tillys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.