UBS Group Stock Future Price Prediction

UBS
 Stock
  

USD 18.26  0.20  1.11%   

UBS Group Ag stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of UBS Group shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of UBS Group's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of UBS Group and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from UBS Group's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with UBS Group Ag, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Also, please take a look at UBS Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of UBS Group based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The UBS Group stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on UBS Group over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.18) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.14
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.23
Wall Street Target Price
18.85
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.31
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.10) 
Using UBS Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of UBS Group Ag from the perspective of UBS Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards UBS Group using UBS Group's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards UBS Group using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of UBS Group's stock price.

UBS Group Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in UBS Group's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards UBS Group. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of UBS Group stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long UBS Group may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about UBS Group and may potentially protect profits, hedge UBS Group with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
16.94
Short Percent
0.0026
Short Ratio
2.76
Shares Short Prior Month
7.9 M
50 Day MA
16.03
Shares Short
M

UBS Group Ag Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to UBS Group's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in UBS Group. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding UBS Group can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around UBS Group Ag. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of UBS Group's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about UBS Group.

UBS Group Implied Volatility

    
  24.19  
UBS Group's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of UBS Group Ag stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if UBS Group's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that UBS Group stock will not fluctuate a lot when UBS Group's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in UBS Group. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in UBS Group to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying UBS Group because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

UBS Group after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 18.47  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of UBS Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of UBS Group in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14.3316.8919.45
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
15.7618.3220.89
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.1613.6917.15
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.171.171.17
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as UBS Group. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against UBS Group's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, UBS Group's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in UBS Group Ag.

UBS Group After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of UBS Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in UBS Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of UBS Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

UBS Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting UBS Group's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on UBS Group's historical news coverage. UBS Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.91 and 21.03, respectively. We have considered UBS Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 18.26
18.47
After-hype Price
21.03
Upside
UBS Group is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of UBS Group Ag is based on 3 months time horizon.

UBS Group Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as UBS Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading UBS Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with UBS Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.31  2.55  0.24    0.09  8 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.2618.471.15 
322.78  

UBS Group Hype Timeline

On the 30th of November UBS Group Ag is traded for 18.26. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.24 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.09. UBS Group is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 18.47 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price gain on the next news is projected to be 1.15% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on UBS Group is about 869.32% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 18.17. The company reported the last year's revenue of 35.2 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 7.33 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 35.5 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Also, please take a look at UBS Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

UBS Group Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to UBS Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict UBS Group's future price movements. Getting to know how UBS Group rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how UBS Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

UBS Group Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine UBS Group price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for UBS Group using various technical indicators. When you analyze UBS Group charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About UBS Group Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of UBS Group stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as UBS Group Ag, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of UBS Group based on analysis of UBS Group hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to UBS Group's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to UBS Group's related companies.

Story Coverage note for UBS Group

The number of cover stories for UBS Group depends on current market conditions and UBS Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that UBS Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about UBS Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

UBS Group Short Properties

UBS Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when UBS Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of UBS Group Ag often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential UBS Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UBS Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date12th of April 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.25%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.50
Short Percent Of Float0.26%
Float Shares3.17B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.15M
Shares Short Prior Month7.87M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.73M
Date Short Interest15th of November 2022
Also, please take a look at UBS Group Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the UBS Group Ag information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other UBS Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Volatility module to check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk.

Complementary Tools for UBS Group Stock analysis

When running UBS Group Ag price analysis, check to measure UBS Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy UBS Group is operating at the current time. Most of UBS Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of UBS Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move UBS Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of UBS Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is UBS Group's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of UBS Group. If investors know UBS Group will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about UBS Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.18) 
Market Capitalization
58.1 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.10) 
Return On Assets
0.0067
Return On Equity
0.13
The market value of UBS Group Ag is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of UBS Group that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of UBS Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is UBS Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because UBS Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect UBS Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between UBS Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine UBS Group value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, UBS Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.