Tesla Stock Future Price Prediction

TSLA
 Stock
  

USD 194.86  0.16  0.08%   

Tesla Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Tesla shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Tesla's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Tesla and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Tesla's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tesla Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Tesla Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Tesla based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Tesla stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Tesla over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.98
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.28
EPS Estimate Current Year
4.11
EPS Estimate Next Year
5.64
Wall Street Target Price
264.67
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.0
Using Tesla hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tesla Inc from the perspective of Tesla response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tesla using Tesla's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tesla using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tesla's stock price.
Tesla Long Term Debt to Equity is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Long Term Debt to Equity was at 0.17. The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 3.67, whereas Accounts Payable Turnover is forecasted to decline to 5.90.

Tesla Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Tesla's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Tesla. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Tesla stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Tesla may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tesla and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tesla with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
264.8
Short Percent
0.0302
Short Ratio
0.88
Shares Short Prior Month
76.8 M
50 Day MA
217.1
Shares Short
78.3 M

Tesla Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Tesla's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Tesla. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tesla can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tesla Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tesla's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tesla.

Tesla Implied Volatility

    
  60.14  
Tesla's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tesla Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tesla's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tesla stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tesla's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Tesla. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tesla to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tesla because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Tesla after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 192.81  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Tesla contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Tesla Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.76% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Tesla trading at USD194.86, that is roughly USD7.32. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Tesla's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Tesla Inc options at the current volatility level of 60.14%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tesla's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Tesla in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
175.37372.41376.17
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
159.00907.541,580
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
4.124.424.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tesla. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tesla's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tesla's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Tesla Inc.

Tesla After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Tesla at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tesla or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tesla, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Tesla Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Tesla's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tesla's historical news coverage. Tesla's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 189.05 and 196.57, respectively. We have considered Tesla's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 194.86
189.05
Downside
192.81
After-hype Price
196.57
Upside
Tesla is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tesla Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Tesla Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Tesla is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tesla backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tesla, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.46  3.76   2.05    0.13  9 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
194.86192.811.05 
84.49  

Tesla Hype Timeline

Tesla Inc is at this time traded for 194.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -2.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Tesla is expected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 192.81. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 84.49%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -1.05% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.46%. The volatility of related hype on Tesla is about 1364.52% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 194.73. About 16.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.48. Tesla Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 3:1 split on the 25th of August 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days.
Additionally, take a look at Tesla Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Tesla Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Tesla's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tesla's future price movements. Getting to know how Tesla rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tesla may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ADNTAdient PLC(0.13) 5 per month 3.05  0.0412  5.24 (4.79)  18.68 
ALVAutoliv 1.37 4 per month 1.92  0.0394  5.65 (3.24)  10.03 
AXLAmerican Axle Manufacturing(0.06) 6 per month 4.20 (0.0053)  6.92 (6.33)  30.59 
BWABorgWarner(0.43) 8 per month 1.95  0.0496  4.32 (3.51)  9.45 
CAASChina Automotive Systems(0.07) 7 per month 3.46  0.17  10.24 (7.35)  25.59 
CPSCooper Stnd(2.39) 3 per month 0.00 (0.0177)  8.03 (9.54)  42.51 
CXDCChina XD Plastics 0.00 1 per month 13.11  0.11  18.18 (13.33)  898.09 
DANDana Inc(0.47) 10 per month 2.98  0.0377  5.72 (4.83)  16.70 
DORMDorman Products(0.30) 4 per month 2.71 (0.0185)  3.03 (3.76)  11.62 

Tesla Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tesla price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tesla using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tesla charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Tesla Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Tesla stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tesla Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tesla based on analysis of Tesla hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tesla's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tesla's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.170.18
Interest Coverage20.7122.34

Story Coverage note for Tesla

The number of cover stories for Tesla depends on current market conditions and Tesla's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tesla is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tesla's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Tesla Short Properties

Tesla's future price predictability will typically decrease when Tesla's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tesla Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tesla's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tesla's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1033507611.00
Cash And Short Term Investments17707000000.00
Additionally, take a look at Tesla Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Tesla Inc price analysis, check to measure Tesla's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tesla is operating at the current time. Most of Tesla's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tesla's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tesla's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tesla to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tesla's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tesla. If investors know Tesla will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tesla listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.98
Market Capitalization
615.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.56
Return On Assets
0.12
Return On Equity
0.32
The market value of Tesla Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tesla that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tesla's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tesla's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tesla's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tesla's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tesla's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tesla value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tesla's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.