Travelers Stock Future Price Prediction

TRV
 Stock
  

USD 157.07  3.87  2.53%   

The Travelers Companies stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Travelers Companies shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Travelers Companies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Travelers Companies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Travelers Companies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Travelers Companies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Travelers Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Travelers Companies based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Travelers stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Travelers Companies over a specific investment horizon.Using Travelers Companies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Travelers Companies from the perspective of Travelers Companies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Travelers Companies using Travelers Companies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Travelers using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Travelers Companies' stock price.

Travelers Companies Implied Volatility

    
  40.83  
Travelers Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Travelers Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Travelers Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Travelers Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Travelers Companies' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Travelers Companies. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Travelers Companies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Travelers because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Travelers Companies after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 155.87  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Travelers contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Travelers Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.55% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Travelers Companies trading at $157.07, that is roughly $4.01. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Travelers Companies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Travelers Companies options at the current volatility level of 40.83%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Travelers Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Travelers Companies in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
140.72162.84164.18
Details
11 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
152.00166.70185.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Travelers Companies. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Travelers Companies' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Travelers Companies' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in The Travelers Companies.

Travelers Companies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Travelers Companies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Travelers Companies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Travelers Companies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Travelers Companies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Travelers Companies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Travelers Companies' historical news coverage. Travelers Companies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 154.53 and 157.21, respectively. We have considered Travelers Companies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 157.07
154.53
Downside
155.87
After-hype Price
157.21
Upside
Travelers Companies is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of The Travelers Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.

Travelers Companies Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Travelers Companies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Travelers Companies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Travelers Companies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09  1.37   0.27    0.24  9 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
157.07155.870.31 
45.21  

Travelers Companies Hype Timeline

On the 3rd of October The Travelers Companies is traded for 157.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.27 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.24. Travelers is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 155.87. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 45.21%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.31% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Travelers Companies is about 51.12% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 156.83. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.38. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. The Travelers Companies has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.9. The entity recorded earning per share (EPS) of 11.06. The firm last dividend was issued on the 8th of September 2022. Travelers Companies had 2:1 split on the 12th of May 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days.
Additionally, take a look at Travelers Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Travelers Companies Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Travelers Companies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Travelers Companies' future price movements. Getting to know how Travelers Companies rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Travelers Companies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Travelers Companies Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Travelers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Travelers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Travelers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Travelers Companies Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Travelers Companies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The Travelers Companies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Travelers Companies based on analysis of Travelers Companies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Travelers Companies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Travelers Companies's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Travelers Companies

The number of cover stories for Travelers Companies depends on current market conditions and Travelers Companies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Travelers Companies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Travelers Companies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Travelers Companies Short Properties

Travelers Companies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Travelers Companies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Travelers Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Travelers Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travelers Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.46%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate3.40
Short Percent Of Float1.46%
Float Shares236.39M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.38M
Shares Short Prior Month3.01M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.21M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.22%
Additionally, take a look at Travelers Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Focused Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running The Travelers Companies price analysis, check to measure Travelers Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Travelers Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Travelers Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Travelers Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Travelers Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Travelers Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Travelers Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Travelers Companies. If investors know Travelers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Travelers Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of The Travelers Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Travelers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Travelers Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Travelers Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Travelers Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Travelers Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Travelers Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Travelers Companies value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Travelers Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.