Tillys Stock Future Price Prediction

TLYS
 Stock
  

USD 9.60  0.19  2.02%   

Tillys Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Tillys shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Tillys' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Tillys and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Tillys' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Tillys Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, take a look at Tillys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Tillys based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Tillys stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Tillys over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.81) 
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.09
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.63
Wall Street Target Price
9.67
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.17) 
Using Tillys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Tillys Inc from the perspective of Tillys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Tillys using Tillys' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Tillys using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Tillys' stock price.
Tillys Long Term Debt to Equity is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Tillys reported last year Long Term Debt to Equity of 0.0123. As of 11/27/2022, Debt to Equity Ratio is likely to grow to 0.0186, while Enterprise Value over EBIT is likely to drop 15.45.

Tillys Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Tillys' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Tillys. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Tillys stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Tillys may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Tillys and may potentially protect profits, hedge Tillys with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
8.68
Short Percent
0.0427
Short Ratio
5.61
Shares Short Prior Month
914.7 K
50 Day MA
8.18
Shares Short
961.2 K

Tillys Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Tillys' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Tillys. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Tillys can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Tillys Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Tillys' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Tillys.

Tillys Implied Volatility

    
  64.23  
Tillys' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Tillys Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Tillys' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Tillys stock will not fluctuate a lot when Tillys' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Tillys. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Tillys to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Tillys because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Tillys after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 9.53  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Tillys' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Tillys in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
8.6413.2415.54
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
21.0023.0025.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (3)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.092.102.10
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Tillys. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Tillys' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Tillys' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Tillys Inc.

Tillys After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Tillys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Tillys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Tillys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Tillys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Tillys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Tillys' historical news coverage. Tillys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 7.23 and 11.83, respectively. We have considered Tillys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 9.60
9.53
After-hype Price
11.83
Upside
Tillys is not too volatile asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Tillys Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Tillys Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Tillys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Tillys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Tillys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.34  2.30   0.07    0.10  8 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.609.530.73 
1,150  

Tillys Hype Timeline

Tillys Inc is at this time traded for 9.60. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.1. Tillys is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 9.53. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.73% whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.34%. The volatility of related hype on Tillys is about 766.48% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 9.5. About 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.74. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Tillys Inc has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.99. The entity recorded a loss per share of 0.04. The firm last dividend was issued on the 6th of December 2021. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Additionally, take a look at Tillys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Tillys Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Tillys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Tillys' future price movements. Getting to know how Tillys rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Tillys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Tillys Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Tillys price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Tillys using various technical indicators. When you analyze Tillys charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Tillys Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Tillys stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Tillys Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Tillys based on analysis of Tillys hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Tillys's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Tillys's related companies.
 2014 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.0048210.0126
Interest Coverage3.727.62

Story Coverage note for Tillys

The number of cover stories for Tillys depends on current market conditions and Tillys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Tillys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Tillys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Tillys Short Properties

Tillys' future price predictability will typically decrease when Tillys' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Tillys Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Tillys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Tillys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.57%
Short Percent Of Float4.78%
Float Shares22.3M
Shares Short Prior Month853.83k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day193.79k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month217.45k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Additionally, take a look at Tillys Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Aroon Oscillator module to analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios.

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When running Tillys Inc price analysis, check to measure Tillys' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Tillys is operating at the current time. Most of Tillys' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Tillys' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Tillys' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Tillys to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Tillys' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Tillys. If investors know Tillys will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Tillys listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.81) 
Market Capitalization
289.1 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.17) 
Return On Assets
0.0623
Return On Equity
0.22
The market value of Tillys Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Tillys that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Tillys' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Tillys' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Tillys' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Tillys' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Tillys' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Tillys value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Tillys' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.