Microsoft Stock Future Price Prediction


USD 232.90  4.60  1.94%   

Microsoft Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Microsoft Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Microsoft Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Microsoft Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Microsoft Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Microsoft Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Microsoft Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Microsoft Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Microsoft stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Microsoft Corp over a specific investment horizon.Using Microsoft Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microsoft Corp from the perspective of Microsoft Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Microsoft Corp using Microsoft Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Microsoft using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Microsoft Corp's stock price.

Microsoft Corp Implied Volatility

Microsoft Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microsoft Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microsoft Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microsoft Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microsoft Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Microsoft Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Microsoft Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Microsoft because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Microsoft Corp after-hype prediction price

  $ 233.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Microsoft contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Microsoft Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.42% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Microsoft Corp trading at $232.9, that is roughly $5.65. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Microsoft Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Microsoft Corp options at the current volatility level of 38.79%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microsoft Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Microsoft Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
23 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Microsoft Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Microsoft Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Microsoft Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Microsoft Corp.

Microsoft Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Microsoft Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microsoft Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microsoft Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Microsoft Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Microsoft Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microsoft Corp's historical news coverage. Microsoft Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 231.35 and 234.97, respectively. We have considered Microsoft Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 232.90
After-hype Price
Microsoft Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microsoft Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Microsoft Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Microsoft Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microsoft Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microsoft Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17  1.81  0.26   0.15  9 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Microsoft Corp Hype Timeline

Microsoft Corp is now traded for 232.90. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.26 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.15. Microsoft is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 233.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 118.3%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.11% whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Microsoft Corp is about 202.72% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 233.05. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 198.27 B. Net Income was 72.74 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 135.62 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Additionally, see Microsoft Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Microsoft Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Microsoft Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microsoft Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Microsoft Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microsoft Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Microsoft Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Microsoft price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microsoft using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microsoft charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Microsoft Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Microsoft Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Microsoft Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Microsoft Corp based on analysis of Microsoft Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Microsoft Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Microsoft Corp's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Microsoft Corp

The number of cover stories for Microsoft Corp depends on current market conditions and Microsoft Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microsoft Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microsoft Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Microsoft Corp Short Properties

Microsoft Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Microsoft Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Microsoft Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Microsoft Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microsoft Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.52%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate2.19
Short Percent Of Float0.52%
Float Shares7.45B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day29.72M
Shares Short Prior Month48.15M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month24.56M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield0.93%
Additionally, see Microsoft Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Microsoft Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Microsoft Corp's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for Microsoft Stock analysis

When running Microsoft Corp price analysis, check to measure Microsoft Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microsoft Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Microsoft Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microsoft Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microsoft Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microsoft Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Microsoft Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Microsoft Corp. If investors know Microsoft will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Microsoft Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Microsoft Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Microsoft that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Microsoft Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Microsoft Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Microsoft Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Microsoft Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Microsoft Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Microsoft Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Microsoft Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.