Medifast Stock Future Price Prediction

MED
 Stock
  

USD 121.45  0.97  0.81%   

Medifast stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Medifast shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Medifast's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Medifast and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Medifast's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Medifast, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Additionally, see Medifast Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Medifast based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Medifast stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Medifast over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.08) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.32
EPS Estimate Current Year
12.54
EPS Estimate Next Year
13.26
Wall Street Target Price
106.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
1.91
Using Medifast hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Medifast from the perspective of Medifast response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Medifast using Medifast's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Medifast using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Medifast's stock price.
Medifast Calculated Tax Rate is projected to decrease significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Calculated Tax Rate was at 24.11. The current year PPandE Turnover is expected to grow to 39.31, whereas Revenue to Assets are forecasted to decline to 3.21.

Medifast Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Medifast's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Medifast. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Medifast stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Medifast may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Medifast and may potentially protect profits, hedge Medifast with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
155.37
Short Percent
0.0759
Short Ratio
3.24
Shares Short Prior Month
617.8 K
50 Day MA
114.93
Shares Short
545.8 K

Medifast Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Medifast's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Medifast. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Medifast can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Medifast. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Medifast's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Medifast.

Medifast Implied Volatility

    
  11.99  
Medifast's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Medifast stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Medifast's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Medifast stock will not fluctuate a lot when Medifast's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Medifast. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Medifast to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Medifast because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Medifast after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 121.85  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Medifast contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Medifast will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.75% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Medifast trading at $121.45, that is roughly $0.91. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Medifast's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Medifast options at the current volatility level of 11.99%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Medifast's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Medifast in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
109.67177.18180.22
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
126.38129.42132.45
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
345.00347.00349.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (2)
LowProjected EPSHigh
13.6413.6513.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Medifast. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Medifast's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Medifast's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Medifast.

Medifast After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Medifast at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Medifast or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Medifast, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Medifast Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Medifast's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Medifast's historical news coverage. Medifast's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 118.81 and 124.89, respectively. We have considered Medifast's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 121.45
118.81
Downside
121.85
After-hype Price
124.89
Upside
Medifast is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Medifast is based on 3 months time horizon.

Medifast Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Medifast is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Medifast backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Medifast, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.02  3.04   0.05   0.00  4 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 4 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
121.45121.850.00 
128.81  

Medifast Hype Timeline

On the 29th of November Medifast is traded for 121.45. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Medifast forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of about 128.81%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Medifast is about 1293.62%. The volatility of related hype on Medifast is about 1293.62% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 121.45. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.54. Medifast recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.68. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of September 2022. The firm had 1:20 split on the February 14, 2011. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days.
Additionally, see Medifast Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Medifast Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Medifast's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Medifast's future price movements. Getting to know how Medifast rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Medifast may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Medifast Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Medifast price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Medifast using various technical indicators. When you analyze Medifast charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Medifast Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Medifast stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Medifast, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Medifast based on analysis of Medifast hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Medifast's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Medifast's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.0034580.003549
Interest Coverage842.5837.57

Story Coverage note for Medifast

The number of cover stories for Medifast depends on current market conditions and Medifast's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Medifast is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Medifast's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Medifast Short Properties

Medifast's future price predictability will typically decrease when Medifast's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Medifast often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Medifast's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Medifast's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out5.61%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.52
Short Percent Of Float8.48%
Float Shares10.02M
Shares Short Prior Month601.7k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day130.23k
Date Short Interest14th of October 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield3.75%
Additionally, see Medifast Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Medifast information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Medifast's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Alpha Finder module to use alpha and beta coefficients to find investment opportunities after accounting for the risk.

Complementary Tools for Medifast Stock analysis

When running Medifast price analysis, check to measure Medifast's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Medifast is operating at the current time. Most of Medifast's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Medifast's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Medifast's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Medifast to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Is Medifast's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Medifast. If investors know Medifast will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Medifast listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.08) 
Market Capitalization
1.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
(0.06) 
Return On Assets
0.36
Return On Equity
0.87
The market value of Medifast is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Medifast that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Medifast's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Medifast's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Medifast's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Medifast's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Medifast's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Medifast value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Medifast's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.