Jefferies Stock Future Price Prediction

JEF
 Stock
  

USD 32.76  2.08  6.78%   

Jefferies Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Jefferies Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Jefferies Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Jefferies Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Jefferies Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Jefferies Financial Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please see Jefferies Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Jefferies Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Jefferies stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Jefferies Financial over a specific investment horizon.Using Jefferies Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Jefferies Financial Group from the perspective of Jefferies Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Jefferies Financial using Jefferies Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Jefferies using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Jefferies Financial's stock price.

Jefferies Financial Implied Volatility

    
  25.24  
Jefferies Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Jefferies Financial Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Jefferies Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Jefferies Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Jefferies Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Jefferies Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Jefferies Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Jefferies because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Jefferies Financial after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 32.35  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Jefferies contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Jefferies Financial Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.58% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Jefferies Financial trading at $32.76, that is roughly $0.52. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Jefferies Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Jefferies Financial Group options at the current volatility level of 25.24%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Jefferies Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Jefferies Financial in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
29.4837.7239.76
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
40.0047.6757.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Jefferies Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Jefferies Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Jefferies Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Jefferies Financial.

Jefferies Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Jefferies Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Jefferies Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Jefferies Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Jefferies Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Jefferies Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Jefferies Financial's historical news coverage. Jefferies Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 30.31 and 34.39, respectively. We have considered Jefferies Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 32.76
32.35
After-hype Price
34.39
Upside
Jefferies Financial is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Jefferies Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.

Jefferies Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Jefferies Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Jefferies Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Jefferies Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.26  2.08   0.40   0.55  11 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 11 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.7632.351.25 
135.95  

Jefferies Financial Hype Timeline

On the 5th of October Jefferies Financial is traded for 32.76. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.4 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.55. Jefferies is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 32.35. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 135.95%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -1.25% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.26%. The volatility of related hype on Jefferies Financial is about 99.05% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 33.31. About 26.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.75. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Jefferies Financial has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.58. The entity last dividend was issued on the 12th of August 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 27th of September 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days.
Please see Jefferies Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Jefferies Financial Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Jefferies Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Jefferies Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Jefferies Financial rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Jefferies Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc 2.10 11 per month 2.37  0.08  4.00 (3.62)  17.42 

Jefferies Financial Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Jefferies price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Jefferies using various technical indicators. When you analyze Jefferies charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Jefferies Financial Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Jefferies Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Jefferies Financial Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Jefferies Financial based on analysis of Jefferies Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Jefferies Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Jefferies Financial's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Jefferies Financial

The number of cover stories for Jefferies Financial depends on current market conditions and Jefferies Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Jefferies Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Jefferies Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Jefferies Financial Short Properties

Jefferies Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Jefferies Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Jefferies Financial Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Jefferies Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Jefferies Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out2.42%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.65
Short Percent Of Float2.79%
Float Shares184.4M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day1.86M
Shares Short Prior Month7.7M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.29M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.23%
Please see Jefferies Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Jefferies Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Jefferies Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for Jefferies Stock analysis

When running Jefferies Financial price analysis, check to measure Jefferies Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Jefferies Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Jefferies Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Jefferies Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Jefferies Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Jefferies Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Transaction History
View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance
Go
Equity Analysis
Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities
Go
Portfolio Suggestion
Get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Theme Ratings
Determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Go
Commodity Channel Index
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Go
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio
Go
Is Jefferies Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Jefferies Financial. If investors know Jefferies will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Jefferies Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Jefferies Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Jefferies that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Jefferies Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Jefferies Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Jefferies Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Jefferies Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Jefferies Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Jefferies Financial value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Jefferies Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.