HDFC Bank Stock Future Price Prediction

HDB
 Stock
  

USD 69.24  0.31  0.45%   

HDFC Bank Limited stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of HDFC Bank shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of HDFC Bank's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of HDFC Bank and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from HDFC Bank's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with HDFC Bank Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check HDFC Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of HDFC Bank based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The HDFC Bank stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on HDFC Bank over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.048
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.8
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.59
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.98
Wall Street Target Price
80.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.7
Using HDFC Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of HDFC Bank Limited from the perspective of HDFC Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards HDFC Bank using HDFC Bank's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards HDFC Bank using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of HDFC Bank's stock price.

HDFC Bank Implied Volatility

    
  57.52  
HDFC Bank's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of HDFC Bank Limited stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if HDFC Bank's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that HDFC Bank stock will not fluctuate a lot when HDFC Bank's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in HDFC Bank. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in HDFC Bank to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying HDFC Bank because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

HDFC Bank after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 69.55  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current HDFC Bank contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that HDFC Bank Limited will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.6% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With HDFC Bank trading at USD69.24, that is roughly USD2.49. If you think that the market is fully incorporating HDFC Bank's daily price movement you should consider acquiring HDFC Bank Limited options at the current volatility level of 57.52%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of HDFC Bank's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of HDFC Bank in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
62.6071.7873.60
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
68.9970.8172.63
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
90.0092.1094.30
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.632.672.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as HDFC Bank. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against HDFC Bank's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, HDFC Bank's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in HDFC Bank Limited.

HDFC Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of HDFC Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in HDFC Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of HDFC Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

HDFC Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting HDFC Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on HDFC Bank's historical news coverage. HDFC Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 67.73 and 71.37, respectively. We have considered HDFC Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 69.24
69.55
After-hype Price
71.37
Upside
HDFC Bank is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of HDFC Bank Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

HDFC Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as HDFC Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading HDFC Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with HDFC Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.20  1.83  0.01   0.00  2 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
69.2469.550.00 
6,100  

HDFC Bank Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of December HDFC Bank Limited is traded for 69.24. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. HDFC Bank forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.2%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to HDFC Bank is about 0.0%. The volatility of related hype on HDFC Bank is about 0.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 69.24. About 18.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of HDFC Bank was currently reported as 232.91. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.97. HDFC Bank Limited last dividend was issued on the 11th of May 2022. The entity had 2:1 split on the 26th of September 2019. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Please check HDFC Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

HDFC Bank Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to HDFC Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict HDFC Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how HDFC Bank rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how HDFC Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

HDFC Bank Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine HDFC Bank price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for HDFC Bank using various technical indicators. When you analyze HDFC Bank charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About HDFC Bank Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of HDFC Bank stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as HDFC Bank Limited, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of HDFC Bank based on analysis of HDFC Bank hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to HDFC Bank's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to HDFC Bank's related companies.

Story Coverage note for HDFC Bank

The number of cover stories for HDFC Bank depends on current market conditions and HDFC Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that HDFC Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about HDFC Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

HDFC Bank Short Properties

HDFC Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when HDFC Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of HDFC Bank Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential HDFC Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. HDFC Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1835264184.00
Cash And Short Term Investments5987783800000.00
Please check HDFC Bank Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the HDFC Bank Limited information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other HDFC Bank's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.

Complementary Tools for HDFC Bank Stock analysis

When running HDFC Bank Limited price analysis, check to measure HDFC Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy HDFC Bank is operating at the current time. Most of HDFC Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of HDFC Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move HDFC Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of HDFC Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is HDFC Bank's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of HDFC Bank. If investors know HDFC Bank will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about HDFC Bank listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.048
Market Capitalization
131.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.14
Return On Assets
0.0201
Return On Equity
16.55
The market value of HDFC Bank Limited is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of HDFC Bank that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of HDFC Bank's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is HDFC Bank's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because HDFC Bank's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect HDFC Bank's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between HDFC Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine HDFC Bank value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HDFC Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.