Goosehead Stock Future Price Prediction

GSHD
 Stock
  

USD 40.86  0.46  1.14%   

Goosehead Insurance stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Goosehead Insurance shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Goosehead Insurance's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Goosehead Insurance and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Goosehead Insurance's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Goosehead Insurance, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Goosehead Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Goosehead Insurance based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Goosehead stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Goosehead Insurance over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.53) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.17
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.56
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.9
Wall Street Target Price
62.0
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.19
Using Goosehead Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Goosehead Insurance from the perspective of Goosehead Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Goosehead Insurance using Goosehead Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Goosehead using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Goosehead Insurance's stock price.
Goosehead Insurance Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cash and Equivalents Turnover was at 5.66. The current year Revenue to Assets is expected to grow to 0.58, whereas Book Value per Share is forecasted to decline to (0.79) .

Goosehead Insurance Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Goosehead Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Goosehead. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Goosehead Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Goosehead Insurance may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Goosehead Insurance and may potentially protect profits, hedge Goosehead Insurance with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
53.83
Short Percent
0.0922
Short Ratio
4.93
Shares Short Prior Month
1.9 M
50 Day MA
36.76
Shares Short
1.9 M

Goosehead Insurance Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Goosehead Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Goosehead. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Goosehead can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Goosehead Insurance. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Goosehead Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Goosehead Insurance.

Goosehead Insurance Implied Volatility

    
  74.73  
Goosehead Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Goosehead Insurance stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Goosehead Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Goosehead Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Goosehead Insurance's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Goosehead Insurance. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Goosehead Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Goosehead because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Goosehead Insurance after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 40.93  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Goosehead contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Goosehead Insurance will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.67% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With Goosehead Insurance trading at USD40.86, that is roughly USD1.91. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Goosehead Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Goosehead Insurance options at the current volatility level of 74.73%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Goosehead Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Goosehead Insurance in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
36.7767.5673.14
Details
8 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
130.00151.71175.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.260.330.46
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Goosehead Insurance. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Goosehead Insurance's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Goosehead Insurance's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Goosehead Insurance.

Goosehead Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Goosehead Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Goosehead Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Goosehead Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Goosehead Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Goosehead Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Goosehead Insurance's historical news coverage. Goosehead Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 35.35 and 46.51, respectively. We have considered Goosehead Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 40.86
40.93
After-hype Price
46.51
Upside
Goosehead Insurance is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Goosehead Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.

Goosehead Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Goosehead Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Goosehead Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Goosehead Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.11  5.58  0.07   0.04  3 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 3 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
40.8640.930.17 
820.59  

Goosehead Insurance Hype Timeline

Goosehead Insurance is currently traded for 40.86. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Goosehead is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 40.93 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is forecasted to be 0.17% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.11%. The volatility of related hype on Goosehead Insurance is about 1434.45% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 40.9. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 151.31 M. Net Income was 5.4 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 57.12 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 3 days.
Please check Goosehead Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Goosehead Insurance Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Goosehead Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Goosehead Insurance rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Goosehead Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
ACGLArch Capital Group 0.00 0 per month 1.62  0.15  4.32 (3.32)  13.24 
AEGAegon NV ADR 0.13 1 per month 2.15  0.0277  4.70 (2.68)  11.97 
AIGAmerican International Group 0.57 7 per month 1.30  0.12  3.64 (2.55)  7.70 
GSHDGoosehead Insurance 0.68 3 per month 0.00 (0.06)  7.49 (6.93)  27.56 
HIGHartford Financial Services 1.32 6 per month 1.28  0.10  3.19 (2.18)  8.01 
ORIOld Republic International(0.21) 3 per month 1.34  0.0375  3.48 (2.19)  7.33 
SLFSun Life Financial(1.13) 5 per month 1.42  0.0169  3.64 (2.45)  7.01 
AJGArthur J Gallagher 1.99 10 per month 1.69  0.0419  2.77 (2.71)  9.85 
BROBrown Brown 0.75 9 per month 0.00 (0.06)  3.10 (3.44)  15.76 
EHTHEHealth(0.21) 5 per month 0.00 (0.0202)  11.66 (10.36)  29.60 

Goosehead Insurance Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Goosehead price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Goosehead using various technical indicators. When you analyze Goosehead charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Goosehead Insurance Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Goosehead Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Goosehead Insurance, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Goosehead Insurance based on analysis of Goosehead Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Goosehead Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Goosehead Insurance's related companies.
 2021 2022 (projected)
Cash and Equivalents Turnover5.666.59
Accrued Expenses Turnover73.2272.79

Story Coverage note for Goosehead Insurance

The number of cover stories for Goosehead Insurance depends on current market conditions and Goosehead Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Goosehead Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Goosehead Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Goosehead Insurance Short Properties

Goosehead Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Goosehead Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Goosehead Insurance often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Goosehead Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Goosehead Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16785000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments28526000.00
Please check Goosehead Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Goosehead Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goosehead Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for Goosehead Stock analysis

When running Goosehead Insurance price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Portfolio Manager
State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital
Go
Portfolio Comparator
Compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account
Go
Probability Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Content Syndication
Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal
Go
Money Flow Index
Determine momentum by analyzing Money Flow Index and other technical indicators
Go
Portfolio Diagnostics
Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings
Go
Earnings Calls
Check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges
Go
CEO Directory
Screen CEOs from public companies around the world
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum
Go
Is Goosehead Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.53) 
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.39
Return On Assets
0.0091
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Goosehead Insurance value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.