Guaranty Stock Future Price Prediction

GNTY
 Stock
  

USD 34.59  0.08  0.23%   

Guaranty Bancshares stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Guaranty Bancshares shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Guaranty Bancshares' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Guaranty Bancshares and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Guaranty Bancshares' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Guaranty Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Guaranty Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Guaranty Bancshares based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Guaranty stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Guaranty Bancshares over a specific investment horizon.Using Guaranty Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Guaranty Bancshares from the perspective of Guaranty Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Guaranty Bancshares. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Guaranty Bancshares to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Guaranty because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Guaranty Bancshares after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 34.64  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guaranty Bancshares' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Guaranty Bancshares in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
31.1338.8940.11
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
41.5042.5044.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Guaranty Bancshares. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Guaranty Bancshares' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Guaranty Bancshares' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Guaranty Bancshares.

Guaranty Bancshares After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Guaranty Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Guaranty Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Guaranty Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Guaranty Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Guaranty Bancshares' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Guaranty Bancshares' historical news coverage. Guaranty Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 33.42 and 35.86, respectively. We have considered Guaranty Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 34.59
34.64
After-hype Price
35.86
Upside
Guaranty Bancshares is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Guaranty Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

Guaranty Bancshares Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Guaranty Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Guaranty Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Guaranty Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07  1.22  0.05    0.19  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
34.5934.640.14 
184.85  

Guaranty Bancshares Hype Timeline

Guaranty Bancshares is currently traded for 34.59. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.05 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.19. Guaranty is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 34.64 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 184.85%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.14% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Guaranty Bancshares is about 45.52% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 34.4. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 125.3 M. Net Income was 39.93 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 121.37 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days.
Please check Guaranty Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Guaranty Bancshares Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Guaranty Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Guaranty Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how Guaranty Bancshares rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Guaranty Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.51  0.07  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Guaranty Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Guaranty price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Guaranty using various technical indicators. When you analyze Guaranty charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Guaranty Bancshares Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Guaranty Bancshares stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Guaranty Bancshares, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Guaranty Bancshares based on analysis of Guaranty Bancshares hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Guaranty Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Guaranty Bancshares's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Guaranty Bancshares

The number of cover stories for Guaranty Bancshares depends on current market conditions and Guaranty Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Guaranty Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Guaranty Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Guaranty Bancshares Short Properties

Guaranty Bancshares' future price predictability will typically decrease when Guaranty Bancshares' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Guaranty Bancshares often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Guaranty Bancshares' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Guaranty Bancshares' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.08%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate0.72
Short Percent Of Float1.59%
Float Shares8.84M
Shares Short Prior Month121.12k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day12.37k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month12.48k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield2.05%
Please check Guaranty Bancshares Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Bond Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

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When running Guaranty Bancshares price analysis, check to measure Guaranty Bancshares' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Guaranty Bancshares is operating at the current time. Most of Guaranty Bancshares' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Guaranty Bancshares' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Guaranty Bancshares' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Guaranty Bancshares to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Guaranty Bancshares' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Guaranty Bancshares. If investors know Guaranty will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Guaranty Bancshares listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Guaranty Bancshares is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Guaranty that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Guaranty Bancshares' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Guaranty Bancshares' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Guaranty Bancshares' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Guaranty Bancshares' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Guaranty Bancshares' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Guaranty Bancshares value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Guaranty Bancshares' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.