Global Stock Future Price Prediction

GBLI
 Stock
  

USD 22.57  0.29  1.30%   

Global Indemnity Plc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Global Indemnity shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Global Indemnity's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Global Indemnity and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Global Indemnity's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Global Indemnity Plc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Global Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Global Indemnity based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Global stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Global Indemnity over a specific investment horizon.Using Global Indemnity hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Global Indemnity Plc from the perspective of Global Indemnity response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Global Indemnity. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Global Indemnity to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Global because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Global Indemnity after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 22.3  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Global Indemnity in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
21.8823.6125.35
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
19.7221.4623.20
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
22.6024.5825.57
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Global Indemnity. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Global Indemnity's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Global Indemnity's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Global Indemnity Plc.

Global Indemnity After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Global Indemnity at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Global Indemnity or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Global Indemnity, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Global Indemnity Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Global Indemnity's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Global Indemnity's historical news coverage. Global Indemnity's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 20.56 and 24.04, respectively. We have considered Global Indemnity's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 22.57
22.30
After-hype Price
24.04
Upside
Global Indemnity is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Global Indemnity Plc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Global Indemnity Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Global Indemnity is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Global Indemnity backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Global Indemnity, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21  1.75  0.02   0.00  10 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
22.5722.300.09 
1,944  

Global Indemnity Hype Timeline

Global Indemnity Plc is currently traded for 22.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Global is expected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 22.3 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.09% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.21%. The volatility of related hype on Global Indemnity is about 213414.63% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 22.57. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 650.49 M. Net Income was 8.62 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 69.96 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 10 days.
Please check Global Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Global Indemnity Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Global Indemnity's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Global Indemnity's future price movements. Getting to know how Global Indemnity rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Global Indemnity may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DLCRKibush Capital Corp(0.00082) 5 per month 0.00  0.11  0.00  0.00  190.48 

Global Indemnity Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Global price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Global using various technical indicators. When you analyze Global charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Global Indemnity Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Global Indemnity stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Global Indemnity Plc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Global Indemnity based on analysis of Global Indemnity hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Global Indemnity's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Global Indemnity's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Global Indemnity

The number of cover stories for Global Indemnity depends on current market conditions and Global Indemnity's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Global Indemnity is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Global Indemnity's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Global Indemnity Short Properties

Global Indemnity's future price predictability will typically decrease when Global Indemnity's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Global Indemnity Plc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Global Indemnity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Global Indemnity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.06%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate1.00
Short Percent Of Float0.19%
Float Shares3.89M
Shares Short Prior Month3.02k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day4.52k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month5.67k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Trailing Annual Dividend Yield4.40%
Please check Global Indemnity Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Global Indemnity Plc price analysis, check to measure Global Indemnity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Indemnity is operating at the current time. Most of Global Indemnity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Indemnity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Indemnity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Indemnity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Global Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Global Indemnity. If investors know Global will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Global Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Global Indemnity Plc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Global that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Global Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Global Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Global Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Global Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Global Indemnity value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.