Federal Stock Future Price Prediction

FSS
 Stock
  

USD 46.63  0.15  0.32%   

Federal Signal stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Federal Signal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Federal Signal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Federal Signal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Federal Signal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federal Signal, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please check Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Federal Signal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Federal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Federal Signal over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.106
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.55
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.96
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.34
Wall Street Target Price
50.6
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.53
Using Federal Signal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Signal from the perspective of Federal Signal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Signal using Federal Signal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Signal's stock price.
Federal Signal Debt to Equity Ratio is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Federal Signal reported last year Debt to Equity Ratio of 0.36. As of 12/08/2022, Dividend Yield is likely to grow to 0.009347, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 8.37.

Federal Signal Implied Volatility

    
  0.0  
Federal Signal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Signal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Signal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Signal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Signal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Federal Signal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Federal Signal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Federal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Federal Signal after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 46.39  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal Signal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Federal Signal in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
41.9751.5353.53
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
44.0246.0248.02
Details
6 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
45.0049.8355.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (5)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.681.731.76
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Federal Signal. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Federal Signal's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Federal Signal's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Federal Signal.

Federal Signal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Federal Signal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Signal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Signal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Federal Signal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Federal Signal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Signal's historical news coverage. Federal Signal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 44.39 and 48.39, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 46.63
46.39
After-hype Price
48.39
Upside
Federal Signal is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Signal is based on 3 months time horizon.

Federal Signal Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Federal Signal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Signal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Signal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.24  1.98   0.20   0.03  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
46.6346.390.51 
235.71  

Federal Signal Hype Timeline

On the 8th of December Federal Signal is traded for 46.63. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Federal is projected to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 46.39. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.51% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.24%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Signal is about 1552.94% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 46.66. About 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Federal Signal was currently reported as 13.66. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.71. Federal Signal last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2022. The entity had 4:3 split on the 2nd of March 1994. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 8 days.
Please check Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Federal Signal Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Signal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Signal's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Signal rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Signal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
XIACYXiaomi Corp ADR 0.00 0 per month 2.81 (0.0012)  6.16 (4.63)  14.26 
TTDKYTDK Corp ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.86 (0.0093)  3.62 (3.40)  9.70 
NTDOFNintendo Co 0.00 0 per month 1.80  0.0069  3.72 (3.47)  8.95 
GLWCorning Incorporated 0.96 7 per month 1.69 (0.0175)  3.50 (2.78)  8.87 
SNPTFSunny Optical Technology 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.0376)  7.50 (7.20)  16.32 
XIACFXiaomi Corp 0.00 0 per month 2.64 (0.0023)  5.69 (5.22)  13.15 
FLEXFlex 0.06 9 per month 1.81  0.11  4.28 (2.75)  10.66 
NEXOYNexon Co 0.00 0 per month 1.66  0.0485  3.04 (2.86)  7.35 

Federal Signal Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Federal Signal Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Federal Signal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Federal Signal, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Federal Signal based on analysis of Federal Signal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Federal Signal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Federal Signal's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.340.30.360.47
Interest Coverage18.6223.0529.0423.08

Story Coverage note for Federal Signal

The number of cover stories for Federal Signal depends on current market conditions and Federal Signal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Signal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Signal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Federal Signal Short Properties

Federal Signal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Federal Signal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federal Signal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federal Signal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Signal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding61700000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments40000000.00
Please check Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Federal Signal price analysis, check to measure Federal Signal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Signal is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Signal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Signal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Signal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Signal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Cryptocurrency Center
Build and monitor diversified portfolio of extremely risky digital assets and cryptocurrency
Go
Premium Stories
Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope
Go
Portfolio Rebalancing
Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets
Go
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Go
Analyst Recommendations
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Go
Portfolio Optimization
Compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk
Go
Is Federal Signal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Signal. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federal Signal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.106
Market Capitalization
2.8 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.161
Return On Assets
0.0634
Return On Equity
13.2145
The market value of Federal Signal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federal Signal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federal Signal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federal Signal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federal Signal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Signal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Federal Signal value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Signal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.