Disney Stock Future Price Prediction

DIS
 Stock
  

USD 94.33  3.12  3.20%   

Walt Disney stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Disney shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Disney's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Disney and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Disney's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Walt Disney, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Disney Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Disney based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Disney stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Disney over a specific investment horizon.Using Disney hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Walt Disney from the perspective of Disney response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Disney using Disney's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Disney using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Disney's stock price.

Disney Implied Volatility

    
  42.39  
Disney's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Walt Disney stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Disney's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Disney stock will not fluctuate a lot when Disney's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Disney. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Disney to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Disney because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Disney after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 94.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Disney contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Walt Disney will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.65% per day over the life of the 2022-10-07 option contract. With Disney trading at $94.33, that is roughly $2.5. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Disney's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Walt Disney options at the current volatility level of 42.39%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Disney's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Disney in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
84.90124.32126.47
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
137.00197.13229.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Disney. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Disney's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Disney's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Walt Disney.

Disney After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Disney at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Disney or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Disney, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Disney Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Disney's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Disney's historical news coverage. Disney's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 92.17 and 96.47, respectively. We have considered Disney's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 94.33
94.32
After-hype Price
96.47
Upside
Disney is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Walt Disney is based on 1 month time horizon.

Disney Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Disney is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Disney backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Disney, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.73  2.00   0.25   0.91  8 Events / Month0 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
94.3394.320.01 
588.24  

Disney Hype Timeline

On the 2nd of October Walt Disney is traded for 94.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.25 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.91. Disney is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 94.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.01% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.73%. The volatility of related hype on Disney is about 161.29% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 95.24. About 64.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.84. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Walt Disney has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 13th of December 2019. The firm had 1014:1000 split on the 13th of June 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Continue to Disney Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Disney Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Disney's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Disney's future price movements. Getting to know how Disney rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Disney may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
LYVLive Nation Entertainment 1.24 10 per month 0.00 (0.12)  2.63 (5.07)  8.75 

Disney Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Disney price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Disney using various technical indicators. When you analyze Disney charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Disney Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Disney stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Walt Disney, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Disney based on analysis of Disney hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Disney's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Disney's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Disney

The number of cover stories for Disney depends on current market conditions and Disney's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Disney is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Disney's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Disney Short Properties

Disney's future price predictability will typically decrease when Disney's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Walt Disney often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Disney's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Disney's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date13th of December 2019
Shares Percent Shares Out1.13%
Short Percent Of Float1.13%
Float Shares1.82B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day10.52M
Shares Short Prior Month20.64M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month10.95M
Date Short Interest15th of September 2022
Continue to Disney Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

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When running Walt Disney price analysis, check to measure Disney's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Disney is operating at the current time. Most of Disney's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Disney's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Disney's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Disney to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Disney's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Disney. If investors know Disney will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Disney listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Walt Disney is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Disney that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Disney's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Disney's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Disney's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Disney's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Disney's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Disney value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Disney's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.