Chevron Stock Future Price Prediction

CVX
 Stock
  

USD 180.44  2.08  1.17%   

Chevron Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Chevron Corp shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Chevron Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Chevron Corp and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Chevron Corp's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Chevron Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Chevron Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Chevron Corp based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Chevron stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Chevron Corp over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.81
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
4.21
EPS Estimate Current Year
19.23
EPS Estimate Next Year
17.13
Wall Street Target Price
192.59
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
4.81
Using Chevron Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Chevron Corp from the perspective of Chevron Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Chevron Corp using Chevron Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Chevron using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Chevron Corp's stock price.
Chevron Corp Revenue to Assets are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Chevron Corp reported Revenue to Assets of 0.68 in 2021. Quick Ratio is likely to rise to 1.03 in 2022, whereas Long Term Debt to Equity is likely to drop 0.19 in 2022.

Chevron Corp Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Chevron Corp's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Chevron. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Chevron Corp stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Chevron Corp may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Chevron Corp and may potentially protect profits, hedge Chevron Corp with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
160.93
Short Percent
0.0098
Short Ratio
2.32
Shares Short Prior Month
17.6 M
50 Day MA
168.58
Shares Short
18.9 M

Chevron Corp Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Chevron Corp's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Chevron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Chevron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Chevron Corp. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Chevron Corp's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Chevron Corp.

Chevron Corp Implied Volatility

    
  42.08  
Chevron Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Chevron Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Chevron Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Chevron Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Chevron Corp's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Chevron Corp. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Chevron Corp to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Chevron because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Chevron Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 178.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Chevron contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Chevron Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.63% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Chevron Corp trading at $180.44, that is roughly $4.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Chevron Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Chevron Corp options at the current volatility level of 42.08%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Chevron Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Chevron Corp in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
153.75155.81196.20
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
182.86184.92186.98
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
105.00128.94155.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
7.638.429.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Chevron Corp. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Chevron Corp's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Chevron Corp's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Chevron Corp.

Chevron Corp After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Chevron Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Chevron Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Chevron Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Chevron Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Chevron Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Chevron Corp's historical news coverage. Chevron Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 175.97 and 180.09, respectively. We have considered Chevron Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 180.44
175.97
Downside
178.03
After-hype Price
180.09
Upside
Chevron Corp is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Chevron Corp is based on 18 months time horizon.

Chevron Corp Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Chevron Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Chevron Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Chevron Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.17  1.87   0.28   0.30  7 Events / Month6 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
180.44178.030.19 
114.02  

Chevron Corp Hype Timeline

On the 29th of November Chevron Corp is traded for 180.44. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.28 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. Chevron is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 178.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 114.02%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.19% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Chevron Corp is about 104.99% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 180.74. About 72.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Chevron Corp was currently reported as 82.06. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.65. Chevron Corp recorded earning per share (EPS) of 17.58. The entity last dividend was issued on the 17th of November 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 13th of September 2004. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days.
Continue to Chevron Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Chevron Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Chevron Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Chevron Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Chevron Corp rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Chevron Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
APAApa Corp 1.18 9 per month 3.32  0.07  6.58 (5.61)  25.76 
CHKChesapeake Energy Corp 2.38 4 per month 2.60  0.09  4.66 (4.49)  18.23 
COPConocoPhillips 2.21 9 per month 2.30  0.10  4.30 (3.63)  14.83 
DVNDevon Energy Corp 2.00 7 per month 3.06  0.09  5.90 (5.16)  26.48 
EOGEog Resources 2.30 10 per month 2.43  0.08  4.67 (3.86)  19.13 
EQTEqt Corp 1.48 7 per month 3.29  0.07  6.10 (5.84)  23.40 
HESHess Corp 4.85 7 per month 2.45  0.06  5.12 (4.09)  16.15 
LNGCheniere Energy(0.17) 7 per month 1.97  0.1  4.10 (3.40)  16.21 
MROMarathon Oil Corp(0.20) 8 per month 2.89  0.09  5.60 (4.59)  27.61 

Chevron Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Chevron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Chevron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Chevron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Chevron Corp Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Chevron Corp stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Chevron Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Chevron Corp based on analysis of Chevron Corp hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Chevron Corp's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Chevron Corp's related companies.
 2019 2020 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.160.32
Interest Coverage7.9431.39

Story Coverage note for Chevron Corp

The number of cover stories for Chevron Corp depends on current market conditions and Chevron Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Chevron Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Chevron Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Chevron Corp Short Properties

Chevron Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Chevron Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Chevron Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Chevron Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Chevron Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date17th of November 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.98%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate5.60
Short Percent Of Float0.98%
Float Shares1.77B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day7.41M
Shares Short Prior Month17.62M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month9M
Date Short Interest15th of November 2022
Continue to Chevron Corp Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

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When running Chevron Corp price analysis, check to measure Chevron Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Chevron Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Chevron Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Chevron Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Chevron Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Chevron Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Chevron Corp's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Chevron Corp. If investors know Chevron will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Chevron Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.81
Market Capitalization
355.2 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.49
Return On Assets
0.0924
Return On Equity
0.23
The market value of Chevron Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Chevron that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Chevron Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Chevron Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Chevron Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Chevron Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Chevron Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Chevron Corp value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Chevron Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.