Citi Trends Stock Future Price Prediction

CTRN
 Stock
  

USD 16.53  1.18  6.66%   

Citi Trends stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Citi Trends shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Citi Trends' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Citi Trends and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Citi Trends' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Citi Trends, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Citi Trends based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Citi Trends stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Citi Trends over a specific investment horizon.Using Citi Trends hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Citi Trends from the perspective of Citi Trends response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Citi Trends using Citi Trends' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Citi Trends using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Citi Trends' stock price.

Citi Trends Implied Volatility

    
  99.69  
Citi Trends' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Citi Trends stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Citi Trends' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Citi Trends stock will not fluctuate a lot when Citi Trends' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Citi Trends. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Citi Trends to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Citi Trends because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Citi Trends after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 18.21  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Citi Trends' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Citi Trends in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
15.5345.2750.23
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
16.0120.9725.93
Details
2 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
100.00130.00175.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.2320.7226.21
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Citi Trends. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Citi Trends' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Citi Trends' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Citi Trends.

Citi Trends After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Citi Trends at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Citi Trends or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Citi Trends, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Citi Trends Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Citi Trends' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Citi Trends' historical news coverage. Citi Trends' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.25 and 23.17, respectively. We have considered Citi Trends' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 16.53
18.21
After-hype Price
23.17
Upside
Citi Trends is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Citi Trends is based on 3 months time horizon.

Citi Trends Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Citi Trends is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Citi Trends backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Citi Trends, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.48  5.01  1.10   0.00  5 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 5 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.5318.215.57 
218.78  

Citi Trends Hype Timeline

Citi Trends is currently traded for 16.53. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.1 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Citi Trends is projected to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 18.21 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is forecasted to be 5.57% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Citi Trends is about 50100.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 16.53. Citi Trends currently holds about 61.66 M in cash with (6.3 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 7.55. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 5 days.
Continue to Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Citi Trends Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Citi Trends' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Citi Trends' future price movements. Getting to know how Citi Trends rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Citi Trends may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CLWClearwater Paper Corp 0.01 6 per month 1.49  0.1  3.15 (3.05)  22.44 

Citi Trends Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Citi Trends price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Citi Trends using various technical indicators. When you analyze Citi Trends charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Citi Trends Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Citi Trends stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Citi Trends, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Citi Trends based on analysis of Citi Trends hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Citi Trends's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Citi Trends's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Citi Trends

The number of cover stories for Citi Trends depends on current market conditions and Citi Trends' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Citi Trends is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Citi Trends' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Citi Trends Short Properties

Citi Trends' future price predictability will typically decrease when Citi Trends' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Citi Trends often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Citi Trends' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Citi Trends' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date2nd of March 2020
Shares Percent Shares Out21.69%
Short Percent Of Float22.68%
Float Shares6.87M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day352.76k
Shares Short Prior Month1.8M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month297.59k
Date Short Interest29th of July 2022
Continue to Citi Trends Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

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When running Citi Trends price analysis, check to measure Citi Trends' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Citi Trends is operating at the current time. Most of Citi Trends' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Citi Trends' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Citi Trends' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Citi Trends to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Citi Trends' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Citi Trends. If investors know Citi Trends will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Citi Trends listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Citi Trends is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Citi Trends that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Citi Trends' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Citi Trends' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Citi Trends' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Citi Trends' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Citi Trends' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Citi Trends value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Citi Trends' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.