Carnival Stock Future Price Prediction


USD 9.17  0.13  1.40%   

Carnival stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carnival shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carnival's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carnival and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carnival's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carnival, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Carnival Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carnival based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carnival stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carnival over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
EPS Estimate Current Year
EPS Estimate Next Year
Wall Street Target Price
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
Using Carnival hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carnival from the perspective of Carnival response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carnival using Carnival's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carnival using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carnival's stock price.

Carnival Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Carnival's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Carnival. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Carnival stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Carnival may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carnival and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carnival with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
Short Percent
Short Ratio
Shares Short Prior Month
144.5 M
50 Day MA
Shares Short
116.9 M

Carnival Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Carnival's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Carnival. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carnival can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carnival. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carnival's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carnival.

Carnival Implied Volatility

Carnival's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carnival stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carnival's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carnival stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carnival's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carnival. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carnival to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carnival because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Carnival after-hype prediction price

  USD 8.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carnival contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carnival will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 7.82% per day over the life of the 2022-12-09 option contract. With Carnival trading at USD9.17, that is roughly USD0.72. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carnival's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carnival options at the current volatility level of 125.04%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carnival's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Carnival in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
13 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Estimates (7)
LowProjected EPSHigh
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Carnival. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Carnival's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Carnival's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Carnival.

Carnival After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Carnival at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carnival or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carnival, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Carnival Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Carnival's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carnival's historical news coverage. Carnival's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.17 and 14.61, respectively. We have considered Carnival's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 9.17
After-hype Price
Carnival is slightly risky asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carnival is based on 3 months time horizon.

Carnival Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Carnival is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carnival backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carnival, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08  5.75  0.01    0.01  8 Events / Month4 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Carnival Hype Timeline

On the 8th of December Carnival is traded for 9.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Carnival forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.08%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to Carnival is about 3404.61%. The volatility of related hype on Carnival is about 3404.61% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 9.16. About 51.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.55. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Carnival has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.41. The entity recorded a loss per share of 6.24. The firm last dividend was issued on the 20th of February 2020. Carnival had 2:1 split on the 15th of June 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Continue to Carnival Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Carnival Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Carnival's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carnival's future price movements. Getting to know how Carnival rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carnival may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
At Risk
TRVThe Travelers Companies 2.37 8 per month 1.24  0.11  2.80 (2.03)  6.50 
VZVerizon Communications(0.17) 8 per month 0.00 (0.12)  2.21 (2.62)  7.59 
BACBank Of America 0.06 3 per month 2.03 (0.0279)  4.14 (2.97)  10.59 
GEGeneral Electric 0.51 6 per month 1.72  0.09  3.43 (2.68)  9.22 
CATCaterpillar(5.20) 8 per month 1.43  0.14  4.36 (2.70)  9.57 
IBMInternational Business Machines 0.54 8 per month 1.06  0.12  2.79 (2.32)  6.45 
MRKMerck Company 2.99 8 per month 0.81  0.24  2.44 (1.43)  7.38 
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co(2.41) 8 per month 1.39  0.09  4.20 (2.80)  8.36 
JNJJohnson Johnson(0.21) 6 per month 0.93  0.06  1.58 (1.54)  5.18 

Carnival Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Carnival price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carnival using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carnival charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Carnival Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Carnival stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carnival, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carnival based on analysis of Carnival hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carnival's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carnival's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Carnival

The number of cover stories for Carnival depends on current market conditions and Carnival's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carnival is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carnival's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Carnival Short Properties

Carnival's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carnival's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carnival often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carnival's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carnival's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1123000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments9139000000.00
Continue to Carnival Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Carnival information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Carnival's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for Carnival Stock analysis

When running Carnival price analysis, check to measure Carnival's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carnival is operating at the current time. Most of Carnival's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carnival's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carnival's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carnival to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Carnival's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carnival. If investors know Carnival will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carnival listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
Market Capitalization
11.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
Return On Assets
Return On Equity
The market value of Carnival is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carnival that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carnival's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carnival's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carnival's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carnival's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carnival's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Carnival value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carnival's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.