Caterpillar Stock Future Price Prediction


USD 164.43  0.19  0.12%   

Caterpillar stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Caterpillar shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Caterpillar's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Caterpillar and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Caterpillar's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Caterpillar, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Caterpillar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Caterpillar based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Caterpillar stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Caterpillar over a specific investment horizon.Using Caterpillar hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Caterpillar from the perspective of Caterpillar response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Caterpillar using Caterpillar's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Caterpillar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Caterpillar's stock price.

Caterpillar Implied Volatility

Caterpillar's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Caterpillar stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Caterpillar's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Caterpillar stock will not fluctuate a lot when Caterpillar's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Caterpillar. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Caterpillar to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Caterpillar because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Caterpillar after-hype prediction price

  $ 164.86  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Caterpillar contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Caterpillar will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.08% per day over the life of the 2022-09-30 option contract. With Caterpillar trading at $164.43, that is roughly $5.07. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Caterpillar's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Caterpillar options at the current volatility level of 49.3%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caterpillar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Caterpillar in the context of predictive analytics.
LowReal ValueHigh
LowNext ValueHigh
17 Analysts
LowTarget PriceHigh
Band Projection (param)
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Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Caterpillar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Caterpillar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Caterpillar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Caterpillar.

Caterpillar After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Caterpillar at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Caterpillar or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Caterpillar, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Caterpillar Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Caterpillar's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Caterpillar's historical news coverage. Caterpillar's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 162.74 and 166.98, respectively. We have considered Caterpillar's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 164.43
After-hype Price
Caterpillar is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Caterpillar is based on 3 months time horizon.

Caterpillar Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Caterpillar is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Caterpillar backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Caterpillar, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.17  2.12  0.43   0.16  6 Events / Month2 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility

Caterpillar Hype Timeline

On the 26th of September Caterpillar is traded for 164.43. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.43 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.16. Caterpillar is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 164.86 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is about 83.14%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.26% whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.17%. The volatility of related hype on Caterpillar is about 220.07% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 164.59. The company reported the last year's revenue of 54.03 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 6.76 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 13.19 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days.
Continue to Caterpillar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Caterpillar Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Caterpillar's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Caterpillar's future price movements. Getting to know how Caterpillar rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Caterpillar may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Caterpillar Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Caterpillar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Caterpillar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Caterpillar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Caterpillar Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Caterpillar stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Caterpillar, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Caterpillar based on analysis of Caterpillar hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Caterpillar's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Caterpillar's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Caterpillar

The number of cover stories for Caterpillar depends on current market conditions and Caterpillar's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Caterpillar is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Caterpillar's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Caterpillar Short Properties

Caterpillar's future price predictability will typically decrease when Caterpillar's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Caterpillar often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Caterpillar's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Caterpillar's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Last Dividend Date19th of July 2022
Shares Percent Shares Out0.96%
Trailing Annual Dividend Rate4.53
Short Percent Of Float0.96%
Float Shares526.63M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day2.56M
Shares Short Prior Month5.34M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month2.78M
Date Short Interest31st of August 2022
Continue to Caterpillar Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.

Complementary Tools for Caterpillar Stock analysis

When running Caterpillar price analysis, check to measure Caterpillar's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caterpillar is operating at the current time. Most of Caterpillar's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caterpillar's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caterpillar's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caterpillar to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.