Biogen Stock Future Price Prediction

BIIB
 Stock
  

USD 267.00  2.72  1.03%   

Biogen Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Biogen shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Biogen's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Biogen and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Biogen's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Biogen Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Continue to Biogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Biogen based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Biogen stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Biogen over a specific investment horizon.Using Biogen hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Biogen Inc from the perspective of Biogen response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Biogen using Biogen's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Biogen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Biogen's stock price.

Biogen Implied Volatility

    
  101.13  
Biogen's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Biogen Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Biogen's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Biogen stock will not fluctuate a lot when Biogen's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Biogen. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Biogen to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Biogen because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Biogen after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 266.11  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Biogen contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Biogen Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.32% per day over the life of the 2022-09-30 option contract. With Biogen trading at $267.0, that is roughly $16.88. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Biogen's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Biogen Inc options at the current volatility level of 101.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Biogen's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Biogen in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
240.53306.46311.84
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
273.89279.28284.66
Details
29 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
195.00316.55500.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
195.41215.90236.40
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Biogen. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Biogen's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Biogen's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Biogen Inc.

Biogen After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Biogen at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Biogen or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Biogen, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Biogen Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Biogen's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Biogen's historical news coverage. Biogen's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 260.73 and 271.49, respectively. We have considered Biogen's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 267.00
260.73
Downside
266.11
After-hype Price
271.49
Upside
Biogen is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Biogen Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Biogen Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Biogen is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Biogen backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Biogen, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.48  5.38   1.20    1.29  9 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
267.00266.110.43 
214.34  

Biogen Hype Timeline

Biogen Inc is currently traded for 267.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.2 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -1.29. Biogen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 266.11. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.43% whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.48%. The volatility of related hype on Biogen is about 200.75% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 265.71. About 87.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Biogen was currently reported as 70.93. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 19.29. Biogen Inc had not issued any dividends in recent years. The entity had 3:1 split on the 18th of January 2001. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Continue to Biogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Biogen Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Biogen's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Biogen's future price movements. Getting to know how Biogen rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Biogen may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(2.68) 10 per month 2.48  0.08  3.91 (3.62)  17.42 

Biogen Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Biogen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Biogen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Biogen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Biogen Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Biogen stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Biogen Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Biogen based on analysis of Biogen hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Biogen's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Biogen's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Biogen

The number of cover stories for Biogen depends on current market conditions and Biogen's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Biogen is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Biogen's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Biogen Short Properties

Biogen's future price predictability will typically decrease when Biogen's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Biogen Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Biogen's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Biogen's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.44%
Short Percent Of Float1.63%
Float Shares144.68M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day3.12M
Shares Short Prior Month2.66M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month1.21M
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Continue to Biogen Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running Biogen Inc price analysis, check to measure Biogen's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Biogen is operating at the current time. Most of Biogen's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Biogen's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Biogen's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Biogen to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Biogen's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Biogen. If investors know Biogen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Biogen listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Biogen Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Biogen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Biogen's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Biogen's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Biogen's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Biogen's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Biogen's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Biogen value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Biogen's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.