American Stock Future Price Prediction

AOUT
 Stock
  

USD 8.57  0.53  6.59%   

American Outdoor Brands stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Outdoor shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Outdoor's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Outdoor and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Outdoor's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Outdoor Brands, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to American Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Outdoor based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Outdoor over a specific investment horizon.Using American Outdoor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Outdoor Brands from the perspective of American Outdoor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards American Outdoor using American Outdoor's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards American using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of American Outdoor's stock price.

American Outdoor Implied Volatility

    
  105.69  
American Outdoor's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of American Outdoor Brands stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if American Outdoor's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that American Outdoor stock will not fluctuate a lot when American Outdoor's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Outdoor. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Outdoor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Outdoor after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 8.11  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Outdoor in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.2413.8417.90
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
3.867.9211.98
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
28.0032.3337.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
7.568.639.69
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Outdoor. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Outdoor's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Outdoor's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Outdoor Brands.

American Outdoor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Outdoor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Outdoor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of American Outdoor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Outdoor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Outdoor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Outdoor's historical news coverage. American Outdoor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 4.05 and 12.17, respectively. We have considered American Outdoor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 8.57
8.11
After-hype Price
12.17
Upside
American Outdoor is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Outdoor Brands is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Outdoor Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as American Outdoor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Outdoor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Outdoor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.19  4.09  0.07    0.38  6 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 6 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
8.578.110.87 
1,105  

American Outdoor Hype Timeline

American Outdoor Brands is presently traded for 8.57. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.07 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.38. American is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 8.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is forecasted to be 0.87% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.19%. The volatility of related hype on American Outdoor is about 205.53% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 8.19. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 247.53 M. Net Loss for the year was (64.88 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 114.27 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 6 days.
Please continue to American Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Outdoor Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Outdoor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Outdoor's future price movements. Getting to know how American Outdoor rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Outdoor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AMZNAmazon Inc(1.99) 11 per month 2.65  0.05  3.91 (4.76)  17.42 

American Outdoor Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Outdoor Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Outdoor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Outdoor Brands, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Outdoor based on analysis of American Outdoor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Outdoor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Outdoor's related companies.

Story Coverage note for American Outdoor

The number of cover stories for American Outdoor depends on current market conditions and American Outdoor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Outdoor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Outdoor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

American Outdoor Short Properties

American Outdoor's future price predictability will typically decrease when American Outdoor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of American Outdoor Brands often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential American Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. American Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out3.29%
Short Percent Of Float3.33%
Float Shares13.2M
Shares Short Prior Month725.94k
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day158.77k
Average Daily Volume In Three Month179.58k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please continue to American Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try Equity Forecasting module to use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum.

Complementary Tools for analysis

When running American Outdoor Brands price analysis, check to measure American Outdoor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Outdoor is operating at the current time. Most of American Outdoor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Outdoor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Outdoor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Outdoor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Outdoor's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Outdoor. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Outdoor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of American Outdoor Brands is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Outdoor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Outdoor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Outdoor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Outdoor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Outdoor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Outdoor value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Outdoor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.