Amazon Stock Future Price Prediction

AMZN
 Stock
  

USD 93.41  0.21  0.23%   

Amazon Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Amazon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Amazon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Amazon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Amazon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Amazon Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Amazon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Amazon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Amazon over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.1) 
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.39
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.09) 
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.68
Wall Street Target Price
141.24
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.21
Using Amazon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Amazon Inc from the perspective of Amazon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Amazon using Amazon's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Amazon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Amazon's stock price.
Amazon Operating Margin is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Operating Margin is estimated at 5.71. Revenue to Assets is expected to rise to 1.49 this year, although the value of Inventory Turnover will most likely fall to 8.75.

Amazon Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Amazon's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Amazon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Amazon stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Amazon may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Amazon and may potentially protect profits, hedge Amazon with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
126.66
Short Percent
0.0089
Short Ratio
1.15
Shares Short Prior Month
79.5 M
50 Day MA
107.78
Shares Short
81.2 M

Amazon Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Amazon's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Amazon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Amazon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Amazon Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Amazon's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Amazon.

Amazon Implied Volatility

    
  47.16  
Amazon's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Amazon Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Amazon's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Amazon stock will not fluctuate a lot when Amazon's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Amazon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Amazon to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Amazon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Amazon after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 93.18  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Amazon contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Amazon Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.95% per day over the life of the 2022-12-02 option contract. With Amazon trading at $93.41, that is roughly $2.75. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Amazon's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Amazon Inc options at the current volatility level of 47.16%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Amazon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Amazon in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
84.071,1061,109
Details
31 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
3,8004,1585,000
Details
Earnings
Estimates (13)
LowProjected EPSHigh
36.1540.7945.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Amazon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Amazon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Amazon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Amazon Inc.

Amazon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Amazon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Amazon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Amazon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Amazon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Amazon's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Amazon's historical news coverage. Amazon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 90.05 and 96.31, respectively. We have considered Amazon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 93.41
93.18
After-hype Price
96.31
Upside
Amazon is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Amazon Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

Amazon Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Amazon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Amazon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Amazon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.47  3.11   0.23   0.00  10 Events / Month3 Events / MonthIn about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
93.4193.180.25 
622.00  

Amazon Hype Timeline

Amazon Inc is presently traded for 93.41. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.23 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Amazon is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 93.18. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next newsis expected to be -0.25% whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.47%. The volatility of related hype on Amazon is about 62200.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 93.41. About 60.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Amazon Inc had 2:1 split on the 6th of June 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Amazon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Amazon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Amazon's future price movements. Getting to know how Amazon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Amazon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Amazon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Amazon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Amazon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Amazon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Amazon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Amazon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Amazon Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Amazon based on analysis of Amazon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Amazon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Amazon's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity0.380.340.350.45
Interest Coverage18.9320.9718.2827.01

Story Coverage note for Amazon

The number of cover stories for Amazon depends on current market conditions and Amazon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Amazon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Amazon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Amazon Short Properties

Amazon's future price predictability will typically decrease when Amazon's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Amazon Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Amazon's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Amazon's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out0.78%
Short Percent Of Float0.89%
Float Shares9.19B
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day100.24M
Shares Short Prior Month78.74M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month72.21M
Date Short Interest31st of October 2022
Please continue to Amazon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Amazon Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Amazon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.

Complementary Tools for Amazon Stock analysis

When running Amazon Inc price analysis, check to measure Amazon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Amazon is operating at the current time. Most of Amazon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Amazon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Amazon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Amazon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Options Analysis
Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios
Go
Stock Tickers
Use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites
Go
Insider Screener
Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance
Go
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Go
Volatility Analysis
Get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data
Go
Watchlist Optimization
Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolio or rebalance existing positions based on mean-variance optimization algorithm
Go
Is Amazon's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Amazon. If investors know Amazon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Amazon listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.1) 
Market Capitalization
952.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.15
Return On Assets
0.02
Return On Equity
0.0878
The market value of Amazon Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Amazon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Amazon's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Amazon's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Amazon's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Amazon's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Amazon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Amazon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Amazon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.