American Mutual Fund Price Prediction Breakdown

AMPAX
 Fund
  

USD 15.58  0.28  1.83%   

American Beacon Mid-Cap fund price prediction is an act of determining the future value of American Beacon shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of American Beacon's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of American Beacon and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from American Beacon's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with American Beacon Mid-Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to American Beacon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether fund price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of American Beacon based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The American price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on American Beacon over a specific investment horizon.Using American Beacon hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Beacon Mid-Cap from the perspective of American Beacon response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in American Beacon. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in American Beacon to buy its mutual fund at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying American because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell mutual funds at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

American Beacon after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 15.58  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of American Beacon's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of American Beacon in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
13.6815.0816.48
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
13.6015.0016.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
15.6317.1417.89
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as American Beacon. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against American Beacon's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, American Beacon's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in American Beacon Mid-Cap.

American Beacon After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of American Beacon at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Beacon or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of American Beacon, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

American Beacon Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting American Beacon's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Beacon's historical news coverage. American Beacon's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.18 and 16.98, respectively. We have considered American Beacon's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 15.58
15.58
After-hype Price
16.98
Upside
American Beacon is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Beacon Mid-Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

American Beacon Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as American Beacon is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Beacon backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Beacon, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.06  1.40  0.00   0.12  8 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
15.5815.580.00 
2,333  

American Beacon Hype Timeline

American Beacon Mid-Cap is presently traded for 15.58. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.12. American forecasted not to react to the next headline with the price going to stay at about the same level and average media hype impact volatility of over 100%. The immediate return on the next newsis forecasted to be very small whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.06%. The volatility of relative hype elasticity to American Beacon is about 68.97%. The volatility of related hype on American Beacon is about 68.97% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 15.7. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.65. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. American Beacon Mid-Cap last dividend was issued on the 31st of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Please continue to American Beacon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

American Beacon Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to American Beacon's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Beacon's future price movements. Getting to know how American Beacon rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Beacon may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AAAlcoa Corp 2.03 9 per month 0.00 (0.08)  5.61 (6.01)  18.59 

American Beacon Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About American Beacon Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of American Beacon stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as American Beacon Mid-Cap, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Beacon based on analysis of American Beacon hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to American Beacon's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to American Beacon's related companies.

Story Coverage note for American Beacon

The number of cover stories for American Beacon depends on current market conditions and American Beacon's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Beacon is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Beacon's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Please continue to American Beacon Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the American Beacon Mid-Cap information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Beacon's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Analyzer module to analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas.

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When running American Beacon Mid-Cap price analysis, check to measure American Beacon's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Beacon is operating at the current time. Most of American Beacon's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Beacon's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Beacon's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Beacon to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between American Beacon's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Beacon value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Beacon's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.