AES Stock Future Price Prediction

AES
 Stock
  

USD 29.47  0.55  1.90%   

AES stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of AES shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of AES's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of AES and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from AES's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The AES, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to AES Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of AES based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The AES stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on AES over a specific investment horizon.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.23
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.52
EPS Estimate Current Year
1.64
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.75
Wall Street Target Price
29.55
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.53
Using AES hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The AES from the perspective of AES response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards AES using AES's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards AES using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of AES's stock price.
AES Return on Investment is relatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AES reported last year Return on Investment of 4.23. As of 12/01/2022, Cash Flow Per Share is likely to grow to 3.63, while Receivables Turnover is likely to drop 7.14.

AES Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in AES's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards AES. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of AES stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long AES may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about AES and may potentially protect profits, hedge AES with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
23.4
Short Percent
0.024
Short Ratio
2.94
Shares Short Prior Month
14.1 M
50 Day MA
25.66
Shares Short
12.2 M

AES Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to AES's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in AES. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding AES can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The AES. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of AES's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about AES.

AES Implied Volatility

    
  36.95  
AES's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The AES stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if AES's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that AES stock will not fluctuate a lot when AES's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in AES. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in AES to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying AES because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

AES after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 28.9  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current AES contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The AES will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.31% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With AES trading at USD29.47, that is roughly USD0.68. If you think that the market is fully incorporating AES's daily price movement you should consider acquiring The AES options at the current volatility level of 36.95%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of AES's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of AES in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
27.5729.9932.41
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
26.5728.9931.41
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
27.5030.5832.00
Details
Earnings
Estimates (4)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.511.521.52
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AES. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AES's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AES's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in AES.

AES After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of AES at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in AES or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of AES, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

AES Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting AES's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on AES's historical news coverage. AES's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 26.48 and 31.32, respectively. We have considered AES's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 29.47
28.90
After-hype Price
31.32
Upside
AES is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of AES is based on 3 months time horizon.

AES Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as AES is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading AES backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with AES, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.20  2.44   0.02   0.00  2 Events / Month5 Events / MonthIn a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
29.4728.900.07 
3,050  

AES Hype Timeline

On the 1st of December AES is traded for 29.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02 and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. AES is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 28.9. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.07% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.2%. The volatility of related hype on AES is about 27450.0% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 29.47. About 97.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.02. AES recorded a loss per share of 0.63. The entity last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2022. The firm had 2:1 split on the 2nd of June 2000. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Please continue to AES Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

AES Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to AES's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict AES's future price movements. Getting to know how AES rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how AES may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MMATMeta Materials 0.01 5 per month 5.23  0.18  14.17 (9.36)  44.34 
WMTWalmart 3.00 8 per month 1.08  0.1  2.18 (2.33)  6.89 
CSCOCisco Systems(0.64) 7 per month 1.34  0.0458  3.23 (1.96)  6.31 
JPMJPMorgan Chase Co(2.16) 4 per month 1.27  0.13  4.20 (2.15)  7.57 
VZVerizon Communications(0.50) 6 per month 0.00 (0.13)  2.21 (2.35)  7.59 
GEGeneral Electric(0.07) 7 per month 1.77  0.06  3.43 (2.68)  9.22 
DDDupont De Nemours 0.40 8 per month 1.53  0.11  3.91 (2.55)  10.00 
BACBank Of America(0.24) 2 per month 1.59  0.06  4.15 (2.75)  8.88 
MRKMerck Company 0.12 8 per month 0.89  0.22  2.44 (1.71)  7.38 

AES Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine AES price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for AES using various technical indicators. When you analyze AES charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About AES Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of AES stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The AES, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of AES based on analysis of AES hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to AES's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to AES's related companies.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity4.75.244.244.08
Interest Coverage2.692.161.582.06

Story Coverage note for AES

The number of cover stories for AES depends on current market conditions and AES's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that AES is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about AES's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

AES Short Properties

AES's future price predictability will typically decrease when AES's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The AES often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential AES's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AES's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding668000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments1175000000.00
Please continue to AES Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the AES information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AES's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.

Complementary Tools for AES Stock analysis

When running AES price analysis, check to measure AES's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AES is operating at the current time. Most of AES's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AES's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AES's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AES to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AES's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AES. If investors know AES will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AES listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
0.23
Market Capitalization
18.9 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.2
Return On Assets
0.0409
Return On Equity
(10.98) 
The market value of AES is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AES that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AES's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AES's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AES's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AES's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AES's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AES value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AES's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.