ADT Stock Future Price Prediction

ADT
 Stock
  

USD 9.68  0.34  3.64%   

ADT Inc stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of ADT shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of ADT's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of ADT and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from ADT's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with ADT Inc, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to ADT Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of ADT based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The ADT stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on ADT over a specific investment horizon.
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.19
EPS Estimate Current Year
0.51
EPS Estimate Next Year
0.68
Wall Street Target Price
9.8
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
0.08
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.22
Using ADT hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ADT Inc from the perspective of ADT response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ADT using ADT's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ADT using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ADT's stock price.
ADT Quick Ratio is comparatively stable at the moment as compared to the past year. ADT reported Quick Ratio of 0.27 in 2021. Book Value per Share is likely to gain to 5.40 in 2022, whereas Cash and Equivalents Turnover is likely to drop 39.46 in 2022.

ADT Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in ADT's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards ADT. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of ADT stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long ADT may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ADT and may potentially protect profits, hedge ADT with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
7.58
Short Percent
0.053
Short Ratio
1.63
Shares Short Prior Month
13.9 M
50 Day MA
8.46
Shares Short
12.9 M

ADT Inc Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to ADT's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in ADT. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ADT can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ADT Inc. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ADT's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ADT.

ADT Implied Volatility

    
  57.81  
ADT's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ADT Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ADT's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ADT stock will not fluctuate a lot when ADT's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in ADT. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in ADT to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying ADT because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

ADT after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 9.68  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ADT contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ADT Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.61% per day over the life of the 2022-12-16 option contract. With ADT trading at USD9.68, that is roughly USD0.35. If you think that the market is fully incorporating ADT's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ADT Inc options at the current volatility level of 57.81%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADT's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of ADT in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
7.2510.1613.07
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
6.699.5912.50
Details
4 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
8.009.5610.25
Details
Earnings
Estimates (1)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.270.270.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ADT. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ADT's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ADT's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in ADT Inc.

ADT After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of ADT at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ADT or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ADT, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

ADT Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting ADT's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ADT's historical news coverage. ADT's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.77 and 12.59, respectively. We have considered ADT's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 9.68
9.68
After-hype Price
12.59
Upside
ADT is somewhat reliable asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ADT Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.

ADT Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as ADT is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADT backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ADT, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.52  2.93  0.04    0.89  7 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
9.689.680.31 
4,186  

ADT Hype Timeline

On the 1st of December ADT Inc is traded for 9.68. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.89. ADT is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline with the price projected to jump to 9.68 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company stock price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.31% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.52%. The volatility of related hype on ADT is about 171.35% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 8.79. The company reported the last year's revenue of 5.31 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (341 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 3.76 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Please continue to ADT Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

ADT Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to ADT's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ADT's future price movements. Getting to know how ADT rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ADT may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
DISWalt Disney(1.71) 7 per month 0.00 (0.09)  4.28 (3.22)  17.60 

ADT Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine ADT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ADT using various technical indicators. When you analyze ADT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About ADT Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of ADT stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as ADT Inc, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of ADT based on analysis of ADT hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to ADT's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to ADT's related companies.
 2018 2020 2022 (projected)
Long Term Debt to Equity2.353.112.68
Interest Coverage0.420.05840.0343

Story Coverage note for ADT

The number of cover stories for ADT depends on current market conditions and ADT's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ADT is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ADT's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

ADT Short Properties

ADT's future price predictability will typically decrease when ADT's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ADT Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ADT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding778000000.00
Cash And Short Term Investments24000000.00
Please continue to ADT Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the ADT Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other ADT's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Piotroski F Score module to get Piotroski F Score based on binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals.

Complementary Tools for ADT Stock analysis

When running ADT Inc price analysis, check to measure ADT's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADT is operating at the current time. Most of ADT's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADT's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADT's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADT to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ADT's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ADT. If investors know ADT will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ADT listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Market Capitalization
8.5 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.22
Return On Assets
0.0199
Return On Equity
(0.0124) 
The market value of ADT Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ADT that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ADT's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ADT's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ADT's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ADT's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ADT's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine ADT value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ADT's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.