Aecom Stock Future Price Prediction

ACM
 Stock
  

USD 67.37  0.28  0.41%   

Aecom Technology Corp stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Aecom Technology shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Aecom Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Aecom Technology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Aecom Technology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Aecom Technology Corp, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Please continue to Aecom Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
  
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Aecom Technology based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Aecom stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Aecom Technology over a specific investment horizon.Using Aecom Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aecom Technology Corp from the perspective of Aecom Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Aecom Technology using Aecom Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Aecom using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Aecom Technology's stock price.

Aecom Technology Implied Volatility

    
  29.76  
Aecom Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Aecom Technology Corp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Aecom Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Aecom Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Aecom Technology's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Aecom Technology. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Aecom Technology to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Aecom because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Aecom Technology after-hype prediction price

    
  $ 68.16  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Aecom contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Aecom Technology Corp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.86% per day over the life of the 2022-10-21 option contract. With Aecom Technology trading at $67.37, that is roughly $1.25. If you think that the market is fully incorporating Aecom Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Aecom Technology Corp options at the current volatility level of 29.76%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aecom Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Aecom Technology in the context of predictive analytics.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
61.3676.8478.66
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
67.2869.1070.93
Details
5 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
73.0084.4091.00
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
66.4569.1570.50
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Aecom Technology. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Aecom Technology's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Aecom Technology's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Aecom Technology Corp.

Aecom Technology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Aecom Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aecom Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aecom Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Aecom Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Aecom Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aecom Technology's historical news coverage. Aecom Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.34 and 69.98, respectively. We have considered Aecom Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value 67.37
68.16
After-hype Price
69.98
Upside
Aecom Technology is very steady asset. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aecom Technology Corp is based on 3 months time horizon.

Aecom Technology Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a company such as Aecom Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aecom Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aecom Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
 0.10  1.62   0.04    0.03  9 Events / Month1 Events / MonthIn about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
67.3768.160.03 
385.71  

Aecom Technology Hype Timeline

On the 27th of September Aecom Technology Corp is traded for 67.37. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.04 and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.03. Aecom is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline with the price expected to drop to 68.16. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next newsis expected to be -0.03% whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Aecom Technology is about 578.57% with expected price after next announcement by competition of 67.34. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Aecom Technology was presently reported as 19.57. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.38. Aecom Technology Corp recorded a loss per share of 1.27. The entity last dividend was issued on the 5th of July 2022. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Please continue to Aecom Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Aecom Technology Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Aecom Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aecom Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Aecom Technology rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aecom Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
RUNSunrun Inc(0.28) 10 per month 3.89  0.08  7.37 (6.40)  37.56 

Aecom Technology Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Aecom price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aecom using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aecom charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Aecom Technology Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Aecom Technology stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Aecom Technology Corp, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Aecom Technology based on analysis of Aecom Technology hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Aecom Technology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Aecom Technology's related companies.

Story Coverage note for Aecom Technology

The number of cover stories for Aecom Technology depends on current market conditions and Aecom Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aecom Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aecom Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Aecom Technology Short Properties

Aecom Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Aecom Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Aecom Technology Corp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Aecom Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Aecom Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Shares Percent Shares Out1.99%
Short Percent Of Float2.37%
Float Shares133.11M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day795.84k
Shares Short Prior Month2.67M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month596.92k
Date Short Interest15th of July 2022
Please continue to Aecom Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Aecom Technology Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aecom Technology's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Idea Breakdown module to analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes.

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Is Aecom Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Aecom Technology. If investors know Aecom will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Aecom Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Aecom Technology Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Aecom that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Aecom Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Aecom Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Aecom Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Aecom Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Aecom Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Aecom Technology value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Aecom Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.