Caterpillar Stock Market Value

CAT
 Stock
  

USD 162.88  0.26  0.16%   

Caterpillar's market value is the price at which a share of Caterpillar stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Caterpillar investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Caterpillar and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Caterpillar over a given investment horizon. Continue to Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Volatility and Caterpillar Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Caterpillar.
Symbol


Is Caterpillar's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Caterpillar. If investors know Caterpillar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Caterpillar listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Caterpillar is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Caterpillar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Caterpillar's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Caterpillar's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Caterpillar's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Caterpillar's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Caterpillar's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Caterpillar value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Caterpillar's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Caterpillar 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Caterpillar's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Caterpillar.
0.00
08/28/2022
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 30 days
09/27/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Caterpillar on August 28, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Caterpillar or generate 0.0% return on investment in Caterpillar over 30 days. Caterpillar is related to or competes with Clearwater Paper. Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industria... More

Caterpillar Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Caterpillar's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Caterpillar upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Caterpillar Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Caterpillar's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Caterpillar's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Caterpillar historical prices to predict the future Caterpillar's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caterpillar's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Caterpillar in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
160.45162.55164.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
146.59178.24180.34
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
155.46157.57159.67
Details
17 Analysts
Consensus
LowTarget PriceHigh
164.00237.57270.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Caterpillar. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Caterpillar's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Caterpillar's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Caterpillar.

Caterpillar Backtested Returns

Caterpillar secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.082, which signifies that the company had -0.082% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards foreseeing the risk of any stock is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Caterpillar exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Caterpillar mean deviation of 1.6, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.38, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Caterpillar's beta means in this case. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Caterpillar will likely underperform. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Caterpillar historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards foreseeing any stock's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Caterpillar exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance. Caterpillar has an expected return of -0.17%. Please be advised to confirm Caterpillar value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price to decide if Caterpillar performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.16  

Insignificant reverse predictability

Caterpillar has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Caterpillar time series from 28th of August 2022 to 12th of September 2022 and 12th of September 2022 to 27th of September 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Caterpillar price movement. The serial correlation of -0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current Caterpillar price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.16
Spearman Rank Test-0.2
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance60.17

Caterpillar lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Caterpillar stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Caterpillar's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Caterpillar returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Caterpillar stock has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Caterpillar regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Caterpillar stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Caterpillar stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Caterpillar stock over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
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       Timeline  

Caterpillar Lagged Returns

When evaluating Caterpillar's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Caterpillar stock have on its future price. Caterpillar autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Caterpillar autocorrelation shows the relationship between Caterpillar stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Caterpillar.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Caterpillar without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Caterpillar

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Caterpillar position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Caterpillar will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Caterpillar

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to Caterpillar could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Caterpillar when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Caterpillar - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Caterpillar to buy it.
The correlation of Caterpillar is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Caterpillar moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Caterpillar moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Caterpillar can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Caterpillar Correlation, Caterpillar Volatility and Caterpillar Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Caterpillar. Note that the Caterpillar information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Caterpillar's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Fundamental Analysis module to view fundamental data based on most recent published financial statements.

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Caterpillar technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.
A focus of Caterpillar technical analysis is to determine if market prices reflect all relevant information impacting that market. A technical analyst looks at the history of Caterpillar trading pattern rather than external drivers such as economic, fundamental, or social events. It is believed that price action tends to repeat itself due to investors' collective, patterned behavior. Hence technical analysis focuses on identifiable price trends and conditions. More Info...