Bitcoin Market Value

BTC
 Crypto
  

USD 16,452  253.23  1.56%   

Bitcoin's market value is the price at which a share of Bitcoin stock trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Bitcoin investors about the entity's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Bitcoin and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Bitcoin over a given investment horizon. Continue to Bitcoin Correlation, Bitcoin Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Bitcoin.
Symbol


Please note, there is a significant difference between Bitcoin's coin value and its market price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Cryptocurrency investors typically determine Bitcoin value by looking at such factors as its true mass adoption, usability, application, safety as well as its ability to resist fraud and manipulation. On the other hand, Bitcoin's price is the amount at which it trades on the cryptocurrency exchange or other digital marketplace that truly represents its supply and demand.

Bitcoin 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Bitcoin's crypto coin what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Bitcoin.
0.00
12/09/2020
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 1 year 11 months and 21 days
11/29/2022
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Bitcoin on December 9, 2020 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Bitcoin or generate 0.0% return on investment in Bitcoin over 720 days. Bitcoin is related to or competes with Litecoin, Ethereum Classic, Monero, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin SV, Arweave, and IOTA. Bitcoin is peer-to-peer digital currency powered by the Blockchain technology.

Bitcoin Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Bitcoin's crypto coin current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Bitcoin upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Bitcoin Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Bitcoin's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Bitcoin's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Bitcoin historical prices to predict the future Bitcoin's volatility.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Bitcoin's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Bitcoin in the context of predictive analytics.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimated ValueHigh
16,42116,42518,097
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowReal ValueHigh
14,77014,77418,097
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
17,59817,60217,606
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
16,53116,78217,034
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Bitcoin. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Bitcoin's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Bitcoin's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Bitcoin.

Bitcoin Backtested Returns

Bitcoin secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0688, which signifies that digital coin had -0.0688% of return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Macroaxis standpoint towards foreseeing the risk of any crypto is to look at both systematic and unsystematic factors of the business, including all available market data and technical indicators. Bitcoin exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility that cannot be diversified away. Please be advised to confirm Bitcoin mean deviation of 2.27, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.08) to double-check the risk estimate we provide.
The crypto shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.24, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. Let's try to break down what Bitcoin's beta means in this case. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Bitcoin are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Bitcoin is likely to outperform the market. Even though it is essential to pay attention to Bitcoin historical returns, it is always good to be careful when utilizing equity current trending patterns. Our philosophy towards foreseeing any crypto's future performance is to check both, its past performance charts as well as the business as a whole, including all available technical indicators. Bitcoin exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate its performance.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.2  

Insignificant reverse predictability

Bitcoin has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Bitcoin time series from 9th of December 2020 to 4th of December 2021 and 4th of December 2021 to 29th of November 2022. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Bitcoin price movement. The serial correlation of -0.2 indicates that over 20.0% of current Bitcoin price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.2
Spearman Rank Test-0.41
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance1.1823241465E8

Bitcoin lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Bitcoin crypto coin's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Bitcoin's crypto coin expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Bitcoin returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Bitcoin crypto coin has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the stock movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
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       Timeline  

Bitcoin regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Bitcoin crypto coin is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Bitcoin crypto coin is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Bitcoin crypto coin over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Bitcoin Lagged Returns

When evaluating Bitcoin's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Bitcoin crypto coin have on its future price. Bitcoin autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Bitcoin autocorrelation shows the relationship between Bitcoin crypto coin current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Bitcoin.
   Regressed Prices   
Share
       Timeline  

Bitcoin Investors Sentiment

The influence of Bitcoin's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Bitcoin. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a crypto movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire crypto markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Bitcoin's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Bitcoin. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Bitcoin can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Bitcoin. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Bitcoin's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Bitcoin's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Bitcoin's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Bitcoin.
Some cryptocurrency investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. However, unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Bitcoin in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the crypto's market sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools provided by cryptocurrency exchanges to gauge market sentiment could be utilized to time the market in a somewhat predictable way.

Pair Trading with Bitcoin

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Bitcoin position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Bitcoin will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Bitcoin

+0.66ETCEthereum ClassicPairCorr
+0.89XMRMoneroPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Bitcoin could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Bitcoin when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Bitcoin - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Bitcoin to buy it.
The correlation of Bitcoin is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Bitcoin moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Bitcoin moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Bitcoin can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Continue to Bitcoin Correlation, Bitcoin Volatility and Investing Opportunities module to complement your research on Bitcoin. You can also try Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.

Other Tools for Bitcoin Crypto Coin

When running Bitcoin price analysis, check to measure Bitcoin's coin volatility and technical momentum indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Bitcoin is operating at the current time. Most of Bitcoin's value examination focuses on studying past and present price actions to predict the probability of Bitcoin's future price movements. You can analyze the coin against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Bitcoin's coin price. Additionally, you may evaluate how adding Bitcoin to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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