Our prognosis on Guaranty Bancshares (NASDAQ:GNTY) to bounce back in May


USD 34.89  0.22  0.63%   

As many of us are excited about financial services space, it is fair to break down Guaranty Bancshares. What exactly are Guaranty Bancshares shareholders getting in May? Is the firm operations in 2022 sustainable? Here we are going to cover Guaranty Bancshares perspective on valuation to give you a better outlook on taking a position in this stock.
Published over six months ago
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This firm currently holds 96.9 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.16, which may suggest Guaranty Bancshares is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Debt can assist Guaranty Bancshares until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Guaranty Bancshares' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Guaranty Bancshares sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Guaranty to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Guaranty Bancshares' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Our investment recommendation module can be used to complement Guaranty Bancshares trade recommendations provided by average analyst sentiment. It analyzes the entity's potential to grow using fundamental, technical, data market data available at the time.
We determine the current worth of Guaranty Bancshares using both absolute as well as relative valuation methodologies to arrive at its intrinsic value. In general, an absolute valuation paradigm, as applied to this company, attempts to find the value of Guaranty Bancshares based exclusively on its fundamental and basic technical indicators. By analyzing Guaranty Bancshares's financials, quarterly and monthly indicators, and related drivers such as dividends, operating cash flow, and various types of growth rates, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Guaranty Bancshares's intrinsic value. In some cases, mostly for established, large-cap companies, we also incorporate more traditional valuation methods such as dividend discount, discounted cash flow, or asset-based models. As compared to an absolute model, our relative valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Guaranty Bancshares. We calculate exposure to Guaranty Bancshares's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Guaranty Bancshares's related companies.

Guaranty Bancshares Investment Alerts

Guaranty investment alerts and warnings help investors to get more proficient at understanding not only critical technical and fundamental signals but also the significant portfolio-centered indicators. These indicators include beta, alpha, and other risk-related measures that will help you in monitoring Guaranty Bancshares performance across your portfolios.Please check all investment alerts for Guaranty

Guaranty Bancshares Valuation Ratios as Compared to Competition

Our valuation model uses many indicators to compare Guaranty value to that of its competitors to determine the firm's financial worth. You can analyze the relationship between different fundamental ratios across Guaranty Bancshares competition to find correlations between indicators driving the intrinsic value of Guaranty.

How does Guaranty utilize its cash?

To perform a cash flow analysis of Guaranty Bancshares, investors first need to understand how to read the cash flow statement. A cash flow statement shows the amount of cash Guaranty Bancshares is receiving and how much cash it distributes out in a given period. The Guaranty Bancshares cash flow statement breaks down these inflows and outflows into different buckets, including operating activities, investing activities, and financing activities.
Guaranty Bancshares Net Cash Flow from Operations is fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. Guaranty Bancshares reported Net Cash Flow from Operations of 43.54 Million in 2021

Guaranty Bancshares exotic insider transaction detected

Legal trades by Guaranty Bancshares insiders are very common, as founders, directors, or employees of any publicly traded firm often have stock or stock options. These trades are made public in the United States through the filing of Form 4 of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Below entry was recorded recently and is publicly available as an insider trade:
Guaranty insider trading alert for general transaction of common stock by Richard Baker, the corporate stakeholder, on 3rd of October 2022. This event was filed by Guaranty Bancshares Inc with SEC on 2022-10-03. Statement of changes in beneficial ownership - SEC Form 4 [view details]   
Note, although insider trading is legal, in the United States, Canada, Australia, and Germany, for mandatory reporting purposes, corporate insiders are defined as a company's officers, directors, and any beneficial owners of more than 10% of a class of the company's equity securities.

Detailed Perspective On Guaranty Bancshares

The company reported the previous year's revenue of 121.88 M. Net Income was 40.56 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 99.82 M.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Net Income26.28 M27.4 M39.81 M33.42 M
Gross Profit94.58 M99.82 M121.83 M112.88 M

Margins Breakdown

Guaranty profit margins show the degree to which it makes money. Margin indicators are used not only by investors but also by creditors or Guaranty Bancshares itself as indicators of financial health and management effectiveness. Please look more closely at the different varieties of Guaranty Bancshares profit margins.
Profit Margin
EBITDA Margin0.45
Gross Margin0.89
Profit Margin0.31

Guaranty Bancshares Net Income Per Employee is increasing over the last 7 years. The previous year's value of Guaranty Bancshares Net Income Per Employee was 46,756. Also, Guaranty Bancshares Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA is fairly stable at the moment.

How will Guaranty investors react to the next slide?

The coefficient of variation is down to -2601.62 as of today. Guaranty Bancshares exhibits very low volatility with skewness of 1.16 and kurtosis of 13.54. However, we advise investors to further study Guaranty Bancshares technical indicators to make sure all market info is available and is reliable. Understanding different market volatility trends often help investors to time the market. Properly using volatility indicators enable traders to measure Guaranty Bancshares' stock risk against market volatility during both bullying and bearish trends. The higher level of volatility that comes with bear markets can directly impact Guaranty Bancshares' stock price while adding stress to investors as they watch their shares' value plummet. This usually forces investors to rebalance their portfolios by buying different stocks as prices fall.

Guaranty Bancshares Implied Volatility

Guaranty Bancshares' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Guaranty Bancshares stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Guaranty Bancshares' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Guaranty Bancshares stock will not fluctuate a lot when Guaranty Bancshares' options are near their expiration.

Our Final Take On Guaranty Bancshares

While many of the other players in the banks—regional industry are either recovering or due for a correction, Guaranty may not be as strong as the others in terms of longer-term growth potentials. To sum up, as of the 17th of April 2022, our concluding 90 days buy-or-sell advice on the company is Hold. We believe Guaranty Bancshares is undervalued with quite high odds of financial distress for the next two years.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Vlad Skutelnik do not own shares of Guaranty Bancshares. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

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