Our recent technical analysis of Check Point Software (NASDAQ:CHKP)

CHKP
 Stock
  

USD 132.41  0.93  0.71%   

While some baby boomers are getting worried about technology space, it is reasonable to recap Check Point Software against economic and market trends. As we have suggested previously, Check Point is beginning its decline as insiders shift to be more bearish due to the increased sector volatility. The returns on the market and returns on Check Point appear somewhat reactive to each other for the last few months. Healthy forward-looking signals of the firm may also hint at signals of long period gains for Check insiders. Check Point Software is scheduled to announce its earnings today.
Published over six months ago
View all stories for Check Point | View All Stories
Check Point Software's average rating is Hold from 16 analysts. Do analysts base this consensus on technical analyses? We know that typical technical analysis utilizes price momentum, patterns, and trends looking at historical prices. It aims to identify signals based on Check Point market sentiment investors' perception of the future value of Check. Let us look at a few aspects of Check technical analysis. The company has Profit Margin (PM) of 37.64 %, which can signify that it executes well on its competitive strategies and has good control over its expenditures. This is very large. Similarly, it shows Operating Margin (OM) of 42.91 %, which suggests for every 100 dollars of sales, it generated a net operating income of 0.43.
Using predictive technical analysis, we will analyze different prices and returns patterns and diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Check Point Software. In general, we focus on analyzing Check Point stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environment and drivers. We also apply predictive analytics to build Check Point's daily price indicators and compare them against related drivers such as momentum indicators and various other types of predictive indicators. Using this methodology combined with a more conventional technical analysis and fundamental analysis, we attempt to find the most accurate representation of Check Point's intrinsic value. In addition to deriving basic predictive indicators for Check Point, we also check how macroeconomic factors affect Check Point price patterns. Please read more on our technical analysis page or use our predictive modules below to complement your research.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, frequently view the market will even out over time. This tendency of Check Point's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy. Please use the tools below to analyze the current value of Check Point in the context of predictive analytics.
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Check Point. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Check Point's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Check Point's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy towards taking a position in Check Point Software.

How important is Check Point's Liquidity

Check Point financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance Check Point Software ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. Check Point financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Please check the breakdown between Check Point's total debt and its cash.

What do experts say?

Stock analysis is a method for investors and traders to make buying and selling decisions. By studying and evaluating past and current data, investors and traders attempt to gain an edge in the markets by making informed decisions.
It is good to see analyst projects for Check Point, but it might be worth checking our own buy vs. sell analysis

Closer look at Check Point Semi Variance

Check Point Software has current Semi Variance of 4.75. Semi-variance provides a good measure of downside volatility for equity or a portfolio. It is similar to variance, but it only looks at periods where the returns are less than the target or average level.

Semi-variance is the square of semi-deviation. Semi-variance is calculated by averaging the deviations of returns that have a result that is less than the mean.

Semi Variance 
 = 
SUM(RET DEV)2 
N(ZERO) 
 = 
4.75
SUM = Summation notation
RET DEV = Actual return deviation over selected period
N(ZERO) = Number of points with returns less than zero
Let's now compare Check Point Semi Variance to its closest peers:
CHKP
BOX
FOUR
FTNT
CHKP4.746791527540565
BOX4.84
FOUR18.41
FTNT12.51

Another small decline for Check Point

The downside variance is down to 5.71 as of today.
As of the 27th of April, Check Point shows the mean deviation of 1.57, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0835. Check Point Software technical analysis gives you the methodology to make use of historical prices and volume patterns to determine a pattern that approximates the direction of the firm's future prices. Put another way, you can use this information to find out if the firm will indeed mirror its model of historical prices and volume momentum, or the prices will eventually revert. We were able to collect data for nineteen technical drivers for Check Point Software, which can be compared to its rivals. Please confirm Check Point Software standard deviation, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and expected short fall to decide if Check Point Software is priced correctly, providing market reflects its regular price of 135.51 per share. Given that Check Point has jensen alpha of 0.1736, we suggest you to validate Check Point Software's prevailing market performance to make sure the company can sustain itself at a future point.

Our Conclusion on Check Point

Although few other entities under the software—infrastructure industry are still a bit expensive, Check Point may offer a potential longer-term growth to insiders. With a less-than optimistic outlook for your 90 days horizon, it may be a good time to exit some or all of your Check Point holdings as it seems the potential growth was already fully factored into the current price. Please use our equity advice module to run different scenarios to ensure your current risk level and investment horizon are fully reflective of your current investing preferences in regards to Check Point.

Editorial Staff

This story should be regarded as informational only and should not be considered a solicitation to sell or buy any financial products. Macroaxis does not express any opinion as to the present or future value of any investments referred to in this post. This post may not be reproduced without the consent of Macroaxis LLC. Macroaxis LLC and Gabriel Shpitalnik do not own shares of Check Point Software. Please refer to our Terms of Use for any information regarding our disclosure principles.

Would you like to provide feedback on the content of this article?

You can get in touch with us directly or send us a quick note via email to editors@macroaxis.com