Goosehead Beneish M Score

GSHD
 Stock
  

USD 40.24  0.62  1.52%   

This module uses fundamental data of Goosehead Insurance to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Goosehead Insurance M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please check Goosehead Insurance Piotroski F Score and Goosehead Insurance Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Goosehead Insurance Total Debt is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Total Debt was at 174.96 Million. The current year Debt Current is expected to grow to about 10 M, whereas Issuance Repayment of Debt Securities is forecasted to decline to about 32.5 M. Goosehead Insurance Cash and Equivalents Turnover is projected to drop slightly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Cash and Equivalents Turnover was at 5.66. The current year Revenue to Assets is expected to grow to 0.58, whereas Book Value per Share is forecasted to decline to (0.79) .
At this time, it appears that Goosehead Insurance is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Goosehead Insurance's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Goosehead Insurance executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Goosehead Insurance's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.79
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.0Focus
Asset Quality1.06Focus
Expense Coverage1.0Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.06Focus
Accruals Factor1.0Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.26Focus
Net Sales Growth1.08Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.0Focus

Goosehead Insurance Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Goosehead Insurance's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense45 M41.7 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues163.3 M151.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables45 M41.7 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net62.1 M57.6 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income8.6 M8.7 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Stable
Net Cash Flow from Operations38.2 M35.4 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current333.6 M309.2 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities22.2 M27.8 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities304.1 M281.8 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Non Current11.1 K11.2 K
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Investments CurrentKK
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Investments13.1 K13.2 K
Slightly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin0.410.385
Notably Up
Decreasing
Very volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion9.1 M11.1 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current178.8 M165.7 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current10 M9.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt188.8 M175 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current237.4 M220 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets40.8 M47.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets288.9 M267.8 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Goosehead Insurance Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Goosehead Insurance's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Goosehead Insurance in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Goosehead Insurance's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Goosehead Insurance Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

9.13 Million

Goosehead Insurance Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The past year's Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was at 11.07 Million

Goosehead Insurance Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Goosehead Insurance. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues42.71 M60.15 M77.49 M117.01 M151.31 M163.26 M
Total Assets16.71 M34.8 M64.63 M185.84 M267.8 M288.94 M
Current Assets7.72 M22.84 M26.73 M50.65 M47.81 M40.78 M
Assets Non Current8.99 M11.96 M37.9 M135.19 M219.99 M237.35 M
Total Liabilities57.84 M(47.8 M)73.64 M190.71 M281.82 M304.07 M
Current Liabilities5.77 M7.81 M13.41 M20.36 M27.78 M22.2 M
Total Debt48.66 M48.45 M46.16 M119.04 M174.96 M188.78 M
Debt Current500 K2.5 M4 M6.7 M9.27 M10 M
Debt Non Current48.16 M45.95 M42.16 M112.34 M165.7 M178.78 M
Operating Income7.61 M(13.93 M)14.07 M19.94 M8.67 M8.57 M

About Goosehead Insurance Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Goosehead Insurance's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Goosehead Insurance using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Goosehead Insurance based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Goosehead Insurance, Inc. operates as a holding company for Goosehead Financial, LLC that provides personal lines insurance agency services in the United States. Goosehead Insurance, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Westlake, Texas. Goosehead Insurance operates under InsuranceDiversified classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1238 people.

Goosehead Insurance Investors Sentiment

The influence of Goosehead Insurance's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Goosehead. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock markets does not have a solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Goosehead Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with investment in Goosehead. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Goosehead can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Goosehead Insurance. Please note that most equiteis that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Goosehead Insurance's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Goosehead Insurance's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Goosehead Insurance's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Goosehead Insurance.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Goosehead Insurance in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Goosehead Insurance's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Goosehead Insurance options trading.

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Please check Goosehead Insurance Piotroski F Score and Goosehead Insurance Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the Goosehead Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Goosehead Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running Goosehead Insurance price analysis, check to measure Goosehead Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Goosehead Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Goosehead Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Goosehead Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Goosehead Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Goosehead Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Goosehead Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Goosehead Insurance. If investors know Goosehead will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Goosehead Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.53) 
Market Capitalization
1.6 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.39
Return On Assets
0.0091
The market value of Goosehead Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Goosehead that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Goosehead Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Goosehead Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Goosehead Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Goosehead Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Goosehead Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Goosehead Insurance value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Goosehead Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.