AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy

AVAV
 Stock
  

USD 92.68  1.27  1.39%   

AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy is used to show its chance of financial distress over the next two years of operations under current economic and market conditions. AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy is determined by interpolating and adjusting AeroVironment Altman Z Score to account for off-balance-sheet items and missing or unfiled public information. All items used in analyzing the odds of distress are taken from the AeroVironment balance sheet as well as cash flow and income statements available from the company's most recent filings. Please continue to AeroVironment Piotroski F Score and AeroVironment Altman Z Score analysis.
  
AeroVironment Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA are fairly stable at the moment as compared to the past year. AeroVironment reported Earnings Before Interest Taxes and Depreciation Amortization EBITDA of 16.79 Million in 2021. Tangible Asset Value is likely to climb to about 511.6 M in 2022, whereas Revenue Per Employee is likely to drop slightly above 353.7 K in 2022.

AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

AeroVironment's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
 2019 2020 2021 2022 (projected)
Receivables149.5 M134.28 M164.36 M177.34 M
Inventories45.53 M71.65 M90.63 M97.78 M
Probability Of Bankruptcy 
 = 
Normalized 
 
Z-Score 
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis

Current AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy

    
  24%  
Most of AeroVironment's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, AeroVironment is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of AeroVironment probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting AeroVironment odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of AeroVironment financial health.
Is AeroVironment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AeroVironment. If investors know AeroVironment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AeroVironment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.36) 
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.074
Return On Assets
(0.002) 
Return On Equity
0.0022
The market value of AeroVironment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AeroVironment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AeroVironment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AeroVironment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AeroVironment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AeroVironment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AeroVironment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AeroVironment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AeroVironment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

AeroVironment Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations

Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for AeroVironment is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Ford stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since AeroVironment's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of AeroVironment's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of AeroVironment's interrelated accounts and indicators.
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
Compare to competition

Based on the latest financial disclosure, AeroVironment has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 24.0%. This is 43.64% lower than that of the Aerospace & Defense sector and 33.65% lower than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 39.74% higher than that of the company.
Chance Of Financial Distress
Less than 26
AeroVironment has less than 26 (%) percent chance of experiencing financial distress in the next two years of operations. The calculation of odds of distress for AeroVironment stock is tightly coupled with the Probability of Bankruptcy. It complements the equity performance score by supplying investors with insight into company financials without requiring them to know too much about all of the complex accounting and financial indicators surrounding the entity. More Info

AeroVironment Main Bankruptcy Drivers

201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Return on Average Assets4.439.667.513.08(0.45)(0.47)
Asset Turnover0.650.630.60.640.520.48
Gross Margin40.1740.8641.6841.6731.6939.47
Total Liabilities62.79 M46.27 M75.05 M316.47 M306.23 M330.41 M
Current Liabilities60.5 M44.87 M66.95 M96.19 M101.39 M109.4 M
Total Assets472.91 M508.84 M584.95 M928.57 M914.2 M986.37 M
Current Assets399.15 M469.59 M503.93 M401.64 M368.91 M342.24 M
Net Cash Flow from Operations70.44 M26.95 M25.1 M86.53 M(9.62 M)(9.87 M)
Weighted Average Shares23.47 M23.66 M23.81 M24.05 M24.69 M22.64 M
Weighted Average Shares Diluted23.81 M24.07 M24.09 M24.36 M24.69 M22.78 M

AeroVironment Fundamentals

About AeroVironment Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze AeroVironment's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of AeroVironment using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of AeroVironment based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
AeroVironment, Inc. designs, develops, produces, delivers, and supports a portfolio of robotic systems and related services for government agencies and businesses in the United States and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1971 and is headquartered in Arlington, Virginia. Aerovironment operates under Aerospace Defense classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 1214 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in AeroVironment without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with AeroVironment

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if AeroVironment position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in AeroVironment will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with AeroVironment

+0.68FBHSFortune Brands Home Downward RallyPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to AeroVironment could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace AeroVironment when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back AeroVironment - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling AeroVironment to buy it.
The correlation of AeroVironment is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as AeroVironment moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if AeroVironment moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for AeroVironment can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to AeroVironment Piotroski F Score and AeroVironment Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the AeroVironment information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other AeroVironment's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.

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Is AeroVironment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AeroVironment. If investors know AeroVironment will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AeroVironment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.36) 
Market Capitalization
2.3 B
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.074
Return On Assets
(0.002) 
Return On Equity
0.0022
The market value of AeroVironment is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AeroVironment that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AeroVironment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AeroVironment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AeroVironment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AeroVironment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AeroVironment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine AeroVironment value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AeroVironment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.