Astronics Beneish M Score

ATRO
 Stock
  

USD 10.40  0.35  3.48%   

This module uses fundamental data of Astronics to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. Astronics M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to Astronics Piotroski F Score and Astronics Altman Z Score analysis.
  
Astronics Total Debt is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Total Debt is estimated at 193.6 Million. Debt Non Current is expected to rise to about 187.1 M this year, although the value of Debt Current will most likely fall to about 5.7 M. Astronics Accounts Payable Turnover is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Accounts Payable Turnover is estimated at 19.51. Accrued Expenses Turnover is expected to rise to 15.54 this year, although the value of Long Term Debt to Equity will most likely fall to 0.58.
At this time, it appears that Astronics is an unlikely manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if Astronics' top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by Astronics executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of Astronics' earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.85
Beneish M Score - Unlikely Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.05Focus
Asset QualityN/AFocus
Expense Coverage1.0Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.44Focus
Accruals Factor1.0Focus
Depreciation Resistance1.1Focus
Net Sales Growth1.01Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.04Focus

Astronics Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if Astronics' auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense100.6 M99.1 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues450.5 M444.9 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables114.4 M107.4 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net119.1 M111.4 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income(34.6 M)(33.7 M)
Fairly Down
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations(5.7 M)(5.5 M)
Fairly Down
Decreasing
Stable
Liabilities Non Current241.5 M233.9 M
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities99.7 M118.6 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities303.2 M352.5 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin21.214.6914
Way Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion32.3 M34.2 M
Notably Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current187.1 M175 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current5.7 M6.8 M
Fairly Down
Decreasing
Stable
Total Debt193.6 M181.8 M
Notably Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current316.7 M269.3 M
Fairly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets282.3 M339.9 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets542.6 M609.1 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile

Astronics Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between Astronics' different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards Astronics in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find Astronics' degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About Astronics Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

32.27 Million

Astronics Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is quite stable at the moment as compared to the past year. The company's current value of Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is estimated at 32.27 Million

Astronics Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as Astronics. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues624.46 M803.26 M772.7 M502.59 M444.91 M450.47 M
Total Assets735.96 M774.64 M782.72 M619.75 M609.14 M542.63 M
Current Assets315.33 M374.17 M343.08 M316.95 M339.86 M282.34 M
Assets Non Current420.63 M400.47 M439.63 M302.8 M269.28 M316.73 M
Total Liabilities406.03 M388.01 M393.86 M349.37 M352.53 M303.19 M
Current Liabilities102.89 M128.09 M120.64 M93.74 M118.61 M99.69 M
Total Debt271.77 M233.98 M213.78 M194.63 M181.8 M193.6 M
Debt Current2.69 M1.87 M4.74 M5 M6.78 M5.71 M
Debt Non Current269.08 M232.11 M209.04 M189.64 M175.02 M187.09 M
Operating Income30.36 M63.66 M1.7 M(100.7 M)(33.69 M)(34.57 M)
Gross Margin21.9622.520.2119.2714.6921.2

About Astronics Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Astronics's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Astronics using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Astronics based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Astronics Corporation, through its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures products for the aerospace, defense, and electronics industries in the United States, rest of North America, Asia, Europe, South America, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in East Aurora, New York. Astronics operates under Aerospace Defense classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2100 people.

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Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in Astronics without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with Astronics

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Astronics position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Astronics will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Astronics could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Astronics when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Astronics - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Astronics to buy it.
The correlation of Astronics is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Astronics moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Astronics moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Astronics can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to Astronics Piotroski F Score and Astronics Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try Commodity Channel Index module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

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Is Astronics' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Astronics. If investors know Astronics will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Astronics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.93) 
Market Capitalization
290.8 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.18
Return On Assets
(0.0441) 
Return On Equity
(0.11) 
The market value of Astronics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Astronics that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Astronics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Astronics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Astronics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Astronics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Astronics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine Astronics value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Astronics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.