American Beneish M Score

APEI
 Stock
  

USD 13.78  0.36  2.68%   

This module uses fundamental data of American Public to approximate the value of its Beneish M Score. American Public M Score tells investors if the company management is likely to be manipulating earnings. The score is calculated using eight financial indicators that are adjusted by a specific multiplier. Please note, the M Score is a probabilistic model and cannot detect companies that manipulate their earnings with 100% accuracy. Please continue to American Public Piotroski F Score and American Public Altman Z Score analysis.
  
American Public Debt Non Current is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Debt Non Current was reported at 221.26 Million. American Public Accrued Expenses Turnover is most likely to drop in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Accrued Expenses Turnover was reported at 15.93. The current Operating Margin is estimated to increase to 7.76, while PPandE Turnover is projected to decrease to 4.90.
At this time, it appears that American Public Education is a possible manipulator. The earnings manipulation may begin if American Public's top management creates an artificial sense of financial success, forcing the stock price to be traded at a high price-earnings multiple than it should be. In general, excessive earnings management by American Public executives may lead to removing some of the operating profits from subsequent periods to inflate earnings in the following periods. This way, the manipulation of American Public's earnings can lead to misrepresentations of actual financial condition, taking the otherwise loyal stakeholders on to the path of questionable ethical practices and plain fraud.
-2.07
Beneish M Score - Possible Manipulator
Elasticity of Receivables1.29Focus
Asset Quality1.23Focus
Expense Coverage1.11Focus
Gross Margin Strengs1.14Focus
Accruals Factor1.11Focus
Depreciation Resistance0.83Focus
Net Sales Growth0.84Focus
Financial Leverage Condition1.0Focus

American Public Beneish M-Score Indicator Trends

The cure to earnings manipulation is the transparency of financial reporting. It will typically remove the temptation of the top executives to inflate earnings (i.e., to promote the idea of 'winning at any cost'). Because a healthy internal audit department can enhance transparency, the board should promote the auditors' access to all the record-keeping systems across the enterprise. For example, if American Public's auditors report directly to the board (not management), the managers will be reluctant to manipulate simply due to the fear of punishment. On the other hand, the auditors will be free to investigate the ledgers properly because they know that the board has their back.
Current ValueLast YearChange From Last Year 10 Year Trend
Selling General and Administrative Expense183.2 M196.7 M
Significantly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Revenues350.8 M418.8 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Trade and Non Trade Receivables38.9 M36 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Property Plant and Equipment Net151.3 M180.4 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Operating Income43.3 M31.7 M
Significantly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Net Cash Flow from Operations16.7 M16.3 M
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Liabilities Non Current244.2 M226.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Liabilities90.3 M83.7 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Liabilities334.5 M310 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Investments Non Current10.6 M9.5 M
Moderately Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Investments10.6 M9.5 M
Moderately Up
Decreasing
Slightly volatile
Gross Margin67.1958.7821
Fairly Up
Decreasing
Stable
Depreciation Amortization and Accretion18.5 M17.8 M
Sufficiently Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Non Current238.7 M221.3 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Debt Current24.2 M22.5 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Debt263 M243.7 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Assets Non Current564.3 M523 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Current Assets177.8 M202.6 M
Fairly Down
Increasing
Slightly volatile
Total Assets782.9 M725.6 M
Significantly Up
Increasing
Slightly volatile

American Public Education Beneish M-Score Driver Matrix

One of the toughest challenges investors face today is learning how to quickly synthesize historical financial statements and information provided by the company, SEC reporting, and various external parties in order to detect the potential manipulation of earnings. Understanding the correlation between American Public's different financial indicators related to revenue, expenses, operating profit, and net earnings helps investors identify and prioritize their investing strategies towards American Public in a much-optimized way. Analyzing correlations between earnings drivers directly associated with dollar figures is the most effective way to find American Public's degree of accounting gimmicks and manipulations.

About American Public Beneish M Score

M-Score is one of many grading techniques for value stocks. It was developed by Professor M. Daniel Beneish of the Kelley School of Business at Indiana University and published in 1999 under the paper titled The Detection of Earnings Manipulation. The Beneish score is a multi-factor model that utilizes financial identifiers to compile eight variables used to classify whether a company has manipulated its reported earnings. The variables are built from the officially filed financial statements to create a final score call 'M Score.' The score helps to identify companies that are likely to manipulate their profits if they show deteriorating gross margins, operating expenses, and leverage against growing revenue.

Depreciation Amortization and Accretion

18.47 Million

American Public Depreciation Amortization and Accretion is most likely to increase significantly in the upcoming years. The last year's value of Depreciation Amortization and Accretion was reported at 17.83 Million

American Public Earnings Manipulation Drivers

Although earnings manipulation is typically not the result of intentional misconduct by the c-level executives, it is still a widespread practice by the senior management of public companies such as American Public. It is usually done by a series of misrepresentations of various accounting rules and operating activities across multiple financial cycles. The best way to spot the manipulation is to examine the historical financial statement to find inconsistencies in earning reports to find trends in assets or liabilities that are not sustainable in the future.
201720182019202020212022 (projected)
Revenues299.25 M297.69 M286.27 M321.79 M418.8 M350.82 M
Total Assets339.04 M370.96 M354.9 M371.02 M725.61 M782.89 M
Current Assets191.13 M232.57 M222.91 M251.81 M202.64 M177.76 M
Assets Non Current147.91 M138.39 M131.99 M119.21 M522.97 M564.26 M
Total Liabilities49.63 M49.69 M58.16 M64.09 M310 M334.47 M
Current Liabilities43.35 M44.33 M45.28 M55.06 M83.68 M90.28 M
Operating Income36.95 M33.41 M13.31 M25.61 M31.65 M43.31 M
Investments14.61 M12.48 M11.97 M10.5 M9.45 M10.6 M
Gross Margin61.1861.2760.9162.0458.7867.19

About American Public Fundamental Analysis

The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze American Public Education's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of American Public using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of American Public Education based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
American Public Education, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides online and campus-based postsecondary education. American Public Education, Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Charles Town, West Virginia. American Public operates under Education Training Services classification in the United States and is traded on NASDAQ Exchange. It employs 2590 people.

Be your own money manager

Our tools can tell you how much better you can do entering a position in American Public without increasing your portfolio risk or giving up the expected return. As an individual investor, you need to find a reliable way to track all your investment portfolios. However, your requirements will often be based on how much of the process you decide to do yourself. In addition to allowing all investors analytical transparency into all their portfolios, our tools can evaluate risk-adjusted returns of your individual positions relative to your overall portfolio.

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Pair Trading with American Public

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if American Public position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in American Public will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with American Public

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Moving against American Public

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The ability to find closely correlated positions to American Public could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace American Public when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back American Public - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling American Public Education to buy it.
The correlation of American Public is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other equities. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as American Public moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if American Public Education moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for American Public can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching
Please continue to American Public Piotroski F Score and American Public Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the American Public Education information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American Public's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.

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When running American Public Education price analysis, check to measure American Public's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American Public is operating at the current time. Most of American Public's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American Public's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American Public's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American Public to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is American Public's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of American Public. If investors know American will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about American Public listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth YOY
(0.43) 
Market Capitalization
253.5 M
Quarterly Revenue Growth YOY
0.52
Return On Assets
0.0264
Return On Equity
(0.28) 
The market value of American Public Education is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Public's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Public's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Public's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Public's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Public's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine American Public value by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Public's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.